Weekly Recap 1/5
Weekly Action:
Corn Mar24 down 9 at $4.62
Beans Mar24 down 41 at $12.57
KC Wheat Mar24 down 15 at $6.29
Hogs Feb24 up 1.55 at $69.825
Fats Feb24 up 2.20 at $170.725
Feeders Mar24 up 1.275 at $224.40
Corn Dec24 down 8 at $4.95
Beans Nov24 down 13 at $12.10
KC Wheat Jul24 down 11 at $6.36
New Crop Corn/Bean Ratio: 2.44
Market Recap:
Row crop markets have faltered out of the gate to being 2024 as the market is looking for fresh news. Traders have their eye on next Friday, as both the WASDE and Quarterly Stocks report will be released. This WASDE will put the final mark on the 2023 corn and soybean production. Going forward, the WASDE reports will be focused on 2024 spring crops.
Friendly South American forecasts and fund selling have been the main drivers behind the negative action this week.
Below are long term support levels for nearby corn and soybean charts. It appears soybeans have long-term support around $12.50 and corn has soft/sluggish long-term support in the $4.20-$4.50 range.
Market moves below these levels may trigger additional fund selling. Check it out here and here
The University of Illinois completed a study comparing the cost of producing corn between Mato Grosso, Brazil and Central Illinois during the 2016-2023 growing seasons.
They found direct costs (not including land costs or living expenses) in Mato Gross have increased from $220/ac in 2016 to $269/ac in 2023, which is an average increase of 2.9%/year. This is compared to Central Illinois which increased from $380/acre to $579/ac, which is a 6.2% annual increase per acre.
On the flip side, the average yield in Mato Grosso over this time has been 93 bpa compared to 224 bpa in Central Illinois. With this in mind, the average cost of a bushel of corn in Illinois is $1.98/bu while it is $2.24/by in Mato Grosso.
Weather:
Forecasts are generally favorable or benign for the next 7-10 days across most of the South American growing regions.
Economy:
Per Payscale, real wages have declined by 8.8% since 1996 after accounting for inflation.
California has 22% of the U.S. homeless population despite its population being only 12% of the U.S. population.
Total jobs in the U.S. increased 1.7% over the past year. It is the lowest YoY growth rate since March 21. The good news: the unemployment rate has been below 4% for 23 consecutive months, which is the longest such streak since the 1960s.
Homebuyer demand is down 47% from pre-pandemic levels and is at its lowest level since 1995.
Beer sales in the U.S. have fallen to its lowest level since 1999 as drinkers are more interested in spirits.
U.S. national debt has risen to more than $24 trillion, which is $2.5 trillion higher than when the debt ceiling was suspended just seven months ago.
Something That Probably Means Nothing:
In 1940, 96% of all children in the US were born to a mother and a father.
Today, 40% of children are born to single mothers in the US. 64% of black, 42% of Hispanic, and 24% of white children are raised without a father present.
check it out here
Quote of the Week:
“Even the strongest blizzards start with a single snowflake.” – Sara Raasch
Enjoy your weekend!
