3.13.26 Tredas Weekly Recap

Weekly Action:

May26 Corn up 6.5 to $4.6725

May26 Beans up 22 to $12.2375

May26 Chi Wheat down 4.5 at $6.1375

May26 KC Wheat up 5 to $6.3

May26 Cotton up 165 points to $0.6585/lb

April26 Hogs down $2.175 at $93.45

April26 Fats down $3.675 at $230.9

April26 Feeders down $8.525 at $343.1

Dec26 Corn up 7 to $4.915

Nov26 Beans up 14.5 to $11.615

July26 Chi Wheat down 2 at $6.245

July26 KC Wheat up 7 to $6.4375

Dec26 Cotton up 147 points to $0.7033/lb

Final Crop Insurance Spring Prices: Corn: $4.62 Soybeans: $11.09 Grain Sorghum: $4.61

Spring Wheat: $6.19

Grains:

Grains have had another splendorous week of gains, despite a sharp rejection of new highs in the Sunday overnight trading session. Old and new crop alike, gains were marked in corn, soybeans, and wheat markets. At the close on Friday, December corn has closed at levels more than 10c better than any opportunity we had in the seasonal marketing window last year and November beans are 80c higher than last year’s pre-harvest high. Wheat has also continued to appreciate, as we are currently over $1.10 better in the nearby futures vs. harvest lows and new crop following a similar story. Fund traders as of 3/10/26 have a net long position of 193,271 contracts of corn (record long of 429,189) and a long position of 222,107 contracts on soybeans (record long of 253,889).

In conjunction with a rally in CBOT futures, Brazil has suspended all soybean exports to China in response to new inspection regulations. Chinese state inspectors have implemented new standards for foreign matter/weed/toxin detection, and as a result, Brazilian beans have gone “no bid” at their ports. Time will tell how long beans will not be flowing out of South America, as their crop appears to be massive, and what effect that will have on US markets is unknown. President Trump has also not mentioned soybean trade, particularly the additional 8MMT purchase ask of the Chinese government, in the past few weeks. There has been no update on their proposed meeting in mid-April amongst the middle Eastern conflict.

Livestock:

Cattle futures battled for relevancy this week amongst the rally in grains. As input prices rose (corn futures along with sporadic and volatile trade in energy markets), fat and feeder cattle futures stayed afloat with nearby chart support and prior trade consolidation. April fat cattle finished the week slightly off of lows made on a gap-down open Monday, with April feeders closing 70c higher than this week’s open and right above the 100-day moving average.

Lean hog futures saw some losses this week as well, continuing a downward trading path in tune with the ebb-and-flow tendency of this market over the last 4 weeks. Chart support near $93 seems to be holding the ship together with more support appearing to be near the $90 mark.

Weather:

False spring has come upon us, as many may know by now. The eastern portion of Nebraska was treated with some nice snowfall on Wednesday, that quickly melted by mid-day and never showed a thought of sticking around. Turning towards the longer term forecast, the 10-15 day shows little precipitation to the plains/Western corn belt, and slightly better moisture out towards the east. (via AgResource Commentary).

The current UNL Drought Monitor shows a majority of the nation’s arable land is under drought as of 3/10/26 (via UNL Drought Monitor).

Economy:

The stock market notched solid gains on Monday, nearly taking back all losses from the prior week, before turning negative and closing lower on the week. Larger indices seem to have taken a “risk-off” approach as it comes to a widening conflict in the Middle East, with energy markets taking the brunt of the attention this week. Nearby crude oil futures traded in a $42.75 range this week, testing highs at $119.48/Bbl in the Sunday overnight trade, trading down to $76.73 in Tuesday’s session, and closing the week above $97/Bbl. Heating oil (diesel) futures have also had quite a week, trading a $1.3513/gal range. The US Dollar Index has also broken above the $1.00 mark for the first time since November of last year.

Something That Probably Means Nothing:

Out of all infinite numbers out there, there is only one positive number that has matching numerical value and makeup of characters, four with four letters. If you counted negative numbers, the only other one would be negative seventeen, but that would be an inverse value (negative seventeen value vs. seventeen characters), so it doesn’t count in my book.

Quote of the Week:

“If you don’t risk anything, you risk even more” – Erica Jong

Have a great weekend!