3.22.24 Tredas Weekly Recap
Weekly Action:
Corn May24 up 2 at $4.39 ($4.08 Feb26 low)
Beans May24 down 7 at $11.92 (11.29 Feb26 low)
KC Wheat May24 up 25 at $5.93 (5.51 March5 low)
Hogs April24 down 2.125 at $84.575
Fats April24 up .225 at $187.60
Feeders April24 down .525 at $251.875
Corn Dec24 up 4 at $4.75 (4.46 feb26 low)
Beans Nov24 down 12 at $11.87 (11.25 feb26 low)
KC Wheat Jul24 up 25 at $5.87 (5.43 March5 low)
Market Recap:
Row crop markets were generally choppy this week as traders prepare for the NASS Stocks and Prospective Plantings report is next Thursday, March 28. This report has historically shown the ability to dramatically swing markets in either direction.
Corn: Old crop corn basis has remained relatively firm as famer selling still seems limited and end user ownership has been hand to mouth. Union Pacific rail locations in the West have competitive bids but any rail loaders on the BNSF are struggling to find new rail bids that outpace local truck demand. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange lowered its corn production forecast 2.5 MMT (100 million bu) to 54.0 MMT. This would still be close to a production record and a dramatic improvement from last year’s 36.0 MMT.
Soybeans: Brazil soybean harvest is approximately 2/3 done and their basis is beginning to firm. The Argentine soybean production was reported unchanged at 52.5 MMT, which is more than double last year’s 25.0 MMT.
HRW: USDA rated Kansas wheat 55% good/excellent. Texas, the number two winter wheat state by planted area is reported to be 46% good/excellent. Only 14% of winter wheat is in area in area experiencing drought, which is down significantly from last year at this time (53%). US winter wheat planted acres are down 6% from last year with a reported 34.425 million acres. Forecasted cooler temperatures the next 7-10 days is not expected to damage the wheat crop. USDA will begin releasing weekly crop progress reports April 1.
Weather:
The US Midwest is slated for widespread rains over the weekend and into next week.
Economy:
The Federal Reserve announced the will leave interest rates unchanged, stating “The economy is strong, the labor market is strong, and inflation has come way down.” This is the fifth consecutive meeting they have held rates steady.
Officials still expect cuts of three-quarters of a percentage point by the end of the year. It is currently 5.25%-5.50%.
Although the US unemployment rate is only 3.9%, over the past year the US has gained 921,000 part-time jobs but has lost 284,000 full-time jobs.
Wholesale used car prices are now at their lowest levels since March 2021. Prices are down 21% from the peak but remain 30% higher than pre-covid.
National gas prices have moved up $3.52 per gallon, which is the highest since last October.
The S&P 500 has closed at new record highs 20 times already this year. The S&P is up 9.9% in the fist 56 trading days of 2024. It is the 15th best start to a year since 1928. These previous years have generally been favorable by the end of the year.
The U.S. House of Representatives passed a $1.2 trillion spending bill to avert a partial government shutdown. It has been sent to the Senate.
Something That Probably Means Nothing:
According to a report from Investopedia, the classic “American Dream” for a married couple with two children is estimated to cost nearly $3.5 million over a lifetime.
Wedding: $36,000
Housing: $797,000
Car Purchases: $271,000
Health Insurance: $934,000
Raising 2 Children to 18: $576,000
College for 2 Children: $168,000
Retirement Investments: $716,000
Quote of the Week:
“If you think small things don’t matter, think of the last game you lost by one point.” - Anonymous
