4.19.24 Tredas Weekly Recap
Weekly Action:
Corn May24 down 1 at $4.34
Beans May24 down 21 at $11.51
KC Wheat May24 down 7 at $5.83
Hogs May24 up 7.025 at $96.35
Fats April24 up 4.125 at $175.70
Feeders April24 up 7.75 at $242.275
Corn Dec24 down 1 at $4.66
Beans Nov24 down 12 at $11.61
KC Wheat Jul24 up 8 at $5.84
Corn seasonal average: $4.67 (something to think about: if you are making decisions above the average, you are beating the average)
Market Recap:
Winter wheat has the best ratings in four years at 56% good/excellent compared to just 28% g/e this time last year. HRW is nearly the best it’s been rated in the last 13 years. SRW is the best in 12 years for this time in April.
We began the week with corn 2% planted, which is the same as last year at this time.
An estimated 3.4 million acres of corn were planted last week vs 2.4 million acres which would have been planted if last week's planting advanced in line with the 5-year average pace for the week. An estimated 7.0 million acres of corn have been planted so far. Roughly 83.0 million acres of corn remain to be planted based on USDA's March 28 Prospective Plantings report estimate.
This week's soybean planting progress update was the first of the season with 3% of the crop planted vs 1% average.
We had spring corn rallies in 2021 coming out of Covid/short crop and in 2022 on the back of Ukraine/Russia, but the last “delayed planting” spring rally was in 2019.
For those looking for something similar this year, it took “the market” until mid-May and we were some 30 million acres behind pace to officially hit the panic button. That year the US planted nearly 40 million acres of corn the first two weeks of June. This represented 45% of all corn acres that year.
The US farmer proved they could plant a lot of acres quickly.
In April 2019, managed money was short about 110,000 contracts of corn. By mid-June they had flipped their position to be long over 300,000 contracts. Managed money is currently short about 250,000 contracts.
Weather:
It will be chilly throughout much of the upper Midwest over the weekend with a frost/freeze extending as far south as Oklahoma. Historical springtime temps are expected to return by next week. Normal rains are expected through next week but the 11-15 day forecast shows a wetter pattern. This could delay planting in local areas around the corn belt.
Economy:
The U.S. House of Representatives will vote on a $95.3 billion aid package Saturday evening.
It Includes:
$60 billion for Ukraine
$14 billion for Israel
$9 billion for humanitarian assistance in Gaza (they need this assistance because of the bombs we are financing)
$5 billion for Indo-Pacific allies (Taiwan)
Monday was tax day for many Americans. The IRS collected $2.7 trillion in income and estate tax in 2023. If passed, this bill represents 3% of all income taxes paid last year.
The federal debt has reached $35 trillion and is growing by $1 trillion every 100 days. This has resulted in a forecasted $870 billion owed in just interest in 2024. This represents the largest portion of the federal budget. Historically, the defense budget has always been the largest ($822 billion).
Per Bloomberg, US households have added $37 trillion in wealth over the past four years, but the distribution is concentrated among the top 0.1% of wealthy people. The top 133,000 households spilt about $20 trillion, which is about $150 million each.
Maybe some of these households shorted Peloton stock, which had a market cap of nearly $50 billion in January 2021. It now has a market cap of $1.2 billion.
Something That Probably Means Nothing:
In medieval times, urine was used to tan hides. Poor families would collect their urine and sell it to the tanner.
This is where the phrase “piss poor” comes from. If you were really really poor, you “didn’t have a pot to piss in”.
Quote of the Week:
“The only difference between a pigeon and the American famer today is that a pigeon can still make a deposit on a John Deere.” – Jim Hightower, Texas Commissioner of Agriculture (1986)
Enjoy your weekend and good luck planting!
