10.24.25 Tredas Weekly Recap
Weekly Action:
Dec25 Corn up 0.75 to $4.2325
Nov25 Beans up 22.25 to $10.4175
Dec25 Chi Wheat up 8.75 to $5.125
Dec25 KC Wheat up 10 to $5.015
Dec25 Cotton down 8 points at $0.642/lb
Dec25 Hogs down $0.475 at $81.9
Dec25 Fats down $7.9 at $233.925
Nov25 Feeders down $19.5 at $352.2
Dec26 Corn up 2 to $4.595
Nov26 Beans up 16.25 to $10.805
July26 Chi Wheat up 8.5 to $5.5
July26 KC Wheat up 6 to $5.455
Dec26 Cotton up 13 points to $0.6823/lb
Grains:
Markets responded positively mid week with the expectation that President Trump and Chinese President Xi will meet next Thursday. However, the heavy lifting on a trade deal will be accomplished by Treasury Secretary Bessent and USTR Ambassador Greer this weekend. Friday, corn and soybean markets finished lower.
Polymarket Prediction site offers 79% odds that the US/China will reach a trade deal by November 10th as each side lowers trade tensions. Those odds have fallen from 92% to 79% in the past couple weeks.
The Nov25 soybean contract rose 10 cents on Thursday, settling at monthly highs. Soybean futures were supported by a surge in oil prices, along with increased optimism over a potential US-China trade deal. The Dec25 corn contract also increased, trading up to $4.28 per bushel. Rumors circulated yesterday regarding Chinese purchases of US soybeans and wheat. Soybeans remain competitive on the global market.
~Area Harvest reports as of start of this week per RJ O’brien crop roundup~
Nebraska had good progress last week. Between central and eastern NE, corn is probably 65% harvested while beans are 95% harvested. Western NE may be only 30% harvested on corn. Yields are disappointing, with around 15% of farmers being happy and 85% seeing yields that are 5%-20% below last year’s levels. Fungicide, hybrids, and a cool cloudy stretch during grain fill seem to be the topics of blame this year. Iowa was wet last week, so there was a slow start. Some started harvest on Wednesday or Thursday. The forecast for the coming week is favorable. Bean harvest is nearly completed, while corn is likely close to 50% harvested statewide. Corn will likely finish this week. Corn yields across the state are generally disappointing. One example farm typically yields near 220 bpa and came in this year at 188 bpa. On the same farm, the bean yield was a record 80.6 bpa. That seems to be representative of other parts of the state. There are some lower bean yields of 50-60 bpa being reported in areas that didn’t handle the rainwater very well. The USDA’s projection of a 10 bpa record on corn is likely to be unattainable.
Summary of above DTN article data:
Corn Yield Summary
As of Oct. 15, 2025, the average corn yield from FIRST trials was 232.8 bushels per acre (bpa).
This is 13.6 bpa lower than the same time in 2024 (246.4 bpa).
Historically, FIRST yields decline after Oct. 15. In 2024, the final average dropped to 231 bpa.
The USDA's September estimate for 2025 was 186.7 bpa, but FIRST data suggests this may be overestimated.
If the same decline occurs as in 2024 (15.1 bpa), the FIRST average would be 217.7 bpa, implying a USDA final yield between 167.4 and 177.4 bpa.
167.4 bpa would be the lowest U.S. corn yield since 2013.
177.4 bpa would still be the second-highest yield, behind 2024.
Soybean Yield Summary
FIRST trials show strong soybean yields for 2025:
Oct. 15 average: 67.3 bpa, up from 63 bpa at the same time in 2024.
Final 2024 FIRST average was 62.3 bpa, which was 11.6 bpa higher than USDA's final average.
USDA's September estimate for 2025 is 53.5 bpa, up from 50.7 bpa in 2024.
FIRST data typically trends 8–10 bpa above USDA's final average, suggesting USDA may again be underestimating soybean yields.
Livestock:
Tensions between the Trump administration and the cattle industry have escalated this week following his announcement to increase Argentine beef imports. Trump's social media post directed towards ranchers on Wednesday triggered a sharp sell-off in cattle futures Wednesday-Friday, with most contracts locked limit lower for most of the day Friday.
Even with the lower prices this week, for perspective, here is a look at the weekly feeder and live cattle charts dating back to the Covid Lows in 2020.
Weather:
US Areas Experiencing Drought
Corn 32% Soybeans 39% Winter Wheat 43% Spring Wheat 16% Cattle 27%
Economy:
The Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday said that the consumer price index (CPI) – a broad measure of how much everyday goods like gasoline, groceries and rent cost – rose 0.3% in September compared with the prior month, while it increased to 3% on a year-over-year basis from 2.9% in August. The monthly figure was in line with the expectations of economists polled by LSEG, while the year-over-year number was slightly lower. So-called core prices, which exclude volatile measurements of gasoline and food to better assess price growth trends, were up 0.2% from the prior month and 3% from a year ago. Both figures were slightly cooler than economists' expectations.
Traders are increasing their expectations for two more federal reserve interest rate cuts this year.
US sanctions may curb Chinese oil imports from Russia. On Thursday, the Trump administration blacklisted two Russian oil companies in an effort to curb funding for Russia's war in Ukraine. Almost 20% of China's crude imports, are supplied by Russia. Companies that continue to do business with these firms face potential secondary penalties, including loss of access to Western banking systems and global oil markets. Conversely, cutting ties would mean losing access to discounted Russian oil that helps keep Chinese energy costs low. The announcement drove oil prices higher.
Something That Probably Means Nothing:
JPMorgan Chase’s new $3 billion skyscraper on 270 Park Ave in Midtown Manhattan is packed with amenities designed to make full-time office workers actually want to return to the office, including 19 restaurants and an assortment of coffee shops that employees can order from in a building-specific app. The new 60-story headquarters opened this week, and at full capacity, it can hold 10,000 employees. The tower is also outfitted with a gym, a company store, and biometric access—and it’s open all hours of the day. Dining options on-site range from Morgan’s, an English pub, to a Michelin-starred vegan restaurant and a cafe that serves protein shakes from an Airstream trailer. The tower has 50% more hospitality space than any previous JPMorgan property, Arena said. The six-year-long rebuild of JPMorgan’s headquarters exemplifies Dimon’s push for in-person collaboration, which he believes is essential for creativity and young worker development. As a vocal proponent of working from the office rather than remote, Dimon has led JPMorgan’s overhaul of 125,000 workspaces around the world over the past five years, with plans for 75,000 more. The new headquarters, according to Dimon, sets the gold standard. “We think of the building as a recruitment tool,” Arena told CNBC. “A workplace needs to be a destination, it needs to be commute-worthy. It needs to provide an elevated experience for employees, for clients and for visitors.”
Quote of the Week:
"The pessimist sees difficulty in every opportunity. The optimist sees opportunity in every difficulty," - Winston Churchill
