10.31.25 Tredas Weekly Recap
Weekly Action:
Dec25 Corn up 8.25 to $4.315
Nov25 Beans up 58 to $10.9975
Dec25 Chi Wheat up 21.5 to $5.34
Dec25 KC Wheat up 23 to $5.245
Dec25 Cotton up 134 points to $0.6554/lb
Dec25 Hogs down $0.625 at $81.275
Dec25 Fats down $4.25 at $229.675
Nov25 Feeders down $13.325 at $338.875
Dec26 Corn up 4 to $4.635
Nov26 Beans up 25.5 to $11.06
July26 Chi Wheat up 17.25 to $5.6725
July26 KC Wheat up 13.25 to $5.5875
Dec26 Cotton up 52 points to $0.6875/lb
Grains:
Markets were higher this week as hopes for a trade deal with China came back to life culminating in what appears to be an agreement between President Trump and China’s President XI late Wednesday. Details are still coming out but here is what appears to have been agreed upon:
China will resume rare earth minerals sales to the US for 1 year
The US cut tariffs on China related to Fentanyl from 20% to 10%
Overall tariff rates on China will be lowered to 47%
US and China both agreed to suspend fees for one year on ships that dock at each other’s ports
China agrees to buy 12 MMT of soybeans from the US this year and a minimum of 25MMT each year for the next three years
The agreement is for one year and will be reviewed and renewed each year
Trump will travel to China in April
Below is a visual of how these amounts of soybean exports to China compare to previous years courtesy of Stone X. This year’s tonnages are more of a band aid, but the volume for the next three years would be back to more of a normal level. China is still free to secure beans as needed from any supplier so South American crop sizes and prices will continue to play a large role in actual sales amounts and timing throughout the year. The news is positive overall but expect volatility to remain high as we move forward and more details and actual sales are known. In addition to China, it has been reported this week that trade deals were also signed with Thailand, Malaysia, Cambodia, Vietnam, and Japan.
The corn market followed beans higher this week and prices have been on a steady to higher trend since yield ideas peaked in early August. Rumors of lower yield trends across the Midwest continue to be discussed and the market is likely trading some of that as funds buy back short positions. The market will be guessing at this until the government reopens and we get the next USDA report which could be January at this point. It’s estimated that corn harvest is 65% - 75% complete to start the week and basis levels are starting to improve. Export inspections (what we actually shipped out) this week were 46.7 million bushels of corn compared to 33.8 million this week last year but were at the lower end of market expectations of 43.3 - 80.7 million. Soybean export inspections were 39 million last week also at the lower end of the market expectations of 36.7 – 55.1 million and well below last year’s 96.7 million at this point. US wheat export inspections were 9.5 million, about half of the previous week’s 18.1 million and the lowest in the last 18 weeks.
Livestock:
Cattle prices gapped lower to start the week but found support and have had a cautious rebound the last few trading sessions. Mexico’s Agriculture Minister, Julio Berdegue, spoke with US Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins on Wednesday but no official date has been set for Mexican cattle imports to restart. Both sides are working towards a solution to screwworm that would allow the border to reopen. In addition to Argentina beef being imported to the US, President Trump has been in talks with Brazil about lowering the current tariffs on them that could allow for beef imports to resume. Cash trade followed futures lower with live sales $8 lower and dressed down $10. Cattle slaughter totaled 343,000 head, up 16,000 from last week, but down 28,000 from last year. Boxed beef prices have moved higher this week, up $4-5, as retail prices increase ahead of seasonal holiday demand. The feeder cattle index was at $352, and the daily is at $346.62, compared to the November futures settlement at $341.82.
Weather:
Brazil’s first corn crop is now 62% planted with soybeans at 36%. Weather has been nearly ideal so far across Argentina and Brazil for the start of their next growing season. Rain across the Midwest slowed harvest this week but helped establish winter wheat. The forecast for the next week shows a dry window for harvest with warming temperatures. Hurricane Melissa is weakening and is now a category 1 storm and is expected to exit the Atlantic without any major impact on the US.
Economy:
The Federal Reserve delivered its rate decision on Wednesday for the benchmark interest rate and as expected it was lowered by .25%. The benchmark rate now sits between 3.75% - 4.00%. Two dissenting votes were recorded from Fed governor Stephan Miran, who wanted a .50% decrease, and Fed President Jeffrey Schmid, who wanted no rate cut, arguing inflation is still too high. Inflation is down according to Fed Chair Jerome Powell, but still “somewhat elevated”. Powell stated more than once that there’s no “risk-free” path to policy, noting that the labor market has already softened and the balance sheet run off is set to end on December 1st. Quantitative easing could begin again in 2026. With key reports unavailable due to the shutdown, a murky future was portrayed by Jerome Powell in his post meeting press conference. Today marks the 31st day of the government shutdown.
Something That Probably Means Nothing:
This year’s top prize for the largest pumpkin went to Brandon Dawson of Santa Rosa, California who won with a pumpkin weighing 2,346 pounds. This year was the 52nd World Championship Pumpkin Weight – Off held in Half Moon Bay, California. Dawson was the runner up last year losing by 6 pounds. In comparison, this year’s Iowa State Fair winning pumpkin weighed in at 1,409 pounds. Americans are projected to spend $834 million on pumpkins this year with about 158 million people buying them to make Jack-0-Lanterns.
Quote of the Week:
"Everyone is a moon and has a dark side, which he never shows to anybody" – Mark Twain
HAPPY HALLOWEEN!
