2.27.26 Tredas Weekly Recap

Weekly Action:

May26 Corn up 9.25 at $4.4850

May26 Soybeans up 20.5 at $11.70
May26 KC Wheat up 3.50 at $5.8350

May26 Cotton up 11 points at $0.6561/lb

April26 Hogs up 2.225 at $95.725
April26 Fats down 9.775 at $232.225
March26 Feeders down 12.425 at $355.425

Dec26 Corn up 4.75 at $4.6875
Nov26 Soybeans up 16.50 at $11.2825

July26 KC Wheat up 5.50 at $6.3175
Dec26 Cotton up 40 points at $0.6970/lb

Crop Insurance Spring Prices:
Corn: $4.61
Soybeans: $11.07
Grain Sorghum: $6.40

Grains:

Corn traded generally sideways for the first half of the week but managed to rally higher by Friday close. Early pressure from weaker export sales kept things quiet, but we saw some stabilization midweek with a bit of short covering and light buying interest. Overall, corn seemed rangebound with not a lot of urgency either way outside of Friday’s strength as we tested the 200 day moving average but ultimately failed.

Soybeans had a little more life this week. After a softer start, beans found their footing and worked higher through the back half of the week. Export numbers weren’t anything overly exciting, but the market seemed comfortable holding support and attracting some technical buying. Beans continue to be a bit more reactive to fund flow and outside market influence.

Wheat was probably the leader of the grain complex this week. Prices steadily pushed higher, helped along by technical momentum and ongoing weather chatter in some key growing areas. It wasn’t explosive, but it was consistently firmer day after day, which stood out.

We’re still operating in a market that’s offering opportunities on small rallies rather than big breakout moves. With corn stuck in a range, patience on incremental sales still makes sense — reward strength but don’t feel forced on flat days. Beans have a little more upside momentum right now, so keeping targets working above the market is reasonable. Wheat’s firmness is encouraging, but we’ll want to see follow-through before getting overly aggressive. Bottom line: stay disciplined, use rallies to chip away at risk, and keep flexibility on as desired.

At the Commodity Classic in San Antonio, U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins announced USDA’s new “One Farmer, One File” modernization effort, aimed at creating a single, streamlined record for each producer across the Farm Service Agency (FSA), Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS), and Risk Management Agency (RMA). The goal is to reduce paperwork, eliminate duplicate reporting, improve customer service, and modernize outdated systems while lowering administrative costs. The initiative, which began development in 2025 and is expected to be completed by 2028, is part of a broader USDA technology overhaul and the Trump Administration’s push to simplify programs, speed up payments, streamline conservation efforts, and cut regulatory red tape across agriculture.

Livestock:

This week was all about profit-taking and uncertainty, and that showed up in both cattle and hog markets. Live cattle futures pulled back noticeably — nearby contracts like April were down about $9.775 to finish around $232/cwt, with June also weaker — as traders gave back some recent gains amid light trading and risk-off sentiment. Cash cattle trade has been slow to develop, but early deals in Nebraska and Iowa came in around $243-$244 live and roughly $383-$384 dressed, running a few dollars softer than last week, and some southern bids around $245 circulated without much match. Feeder cattle were also on the defensive, finishing the week roughly $12 lower on futures, pressured by the same cautious tone and thin cash.

Hogs were a bit more mixed after early week strength but generally softer on the nearby curve. April lean hog futures spent time lower, easing 25-50 cents on Thursday and another 10c Friday. The USDA’s national base hog price was quoted near $91.00 late in the week. Cash hog markets softened as buyers stepped back after earlier strength, although export demand saw a strong weekly sale with Mexico leading purchases — a bright spot in an otherwise quiet cash pork trade. Wholesale pork cutout values slipped slightly as well, holding at around $97 per cwt.

Economy:

The U.S. economy this week felt steady but not overly strong. Inflation continues to cool compared to last year, but it’s still sticky enough to keep the Federal Reserve cautious about moving too quickly on rate cuts. One bright spot has been mortgage rates, which have eased a bit recently, helping bring some life back into housing activity and improving affordability slightly for buyers who’ve been sitting on the sidelines. Consumer spending remains fairly resilient — people are still traveling and spending — but there are signs households are becoming more selective as higher borrowing costs linger.

On the policy front, President Trump’s State of the Union comments focused heavily on economic growth, deregulation, and strengthening domestic production, with an emphasis on keeping costs down for families and businesses. Markets didn’t see anything drastically new, but the tone reinforced the administration’s push toward pro-business policies and regulatory rollbacks. Overall, the economic backdrop right now feels “stable but cautious” — not recessionary, but not booming either — as investors continue watching inflation trends, interest rates, and policy direction heading into the spring.

Something That Probably Means EVERYTHING:

The final event of the 2026 Olympic games was the US – Canada Men’s Hockey match, which was held on February 22nd. If that date rings a bell, that’s the day of the US – Soviet Union hockey game in 1980 in Lake Placid… The most famous day(s) in US Hockey history are now February 22, 1980 and February 22, 2026.

The United States defeated Canada 2-1 in overtime in the gold-medal game on Sunday. Despite Canada outshooting the U.S. 42-28, American netminder Connor Hellebuyck stood tall in the crease, stopping 41 shots. In addition to being a gold medalist, President Trump announced during his State of the Union address on Tuesday evening, Connor will also be awarded the Presidential Medal of Freedom – the nation’s highest civilian honor.

Quote of the Week:

“Diversity plus performance equals outperformance”

Thanks and have a great weekend!