6.13.25 Tredas Weekly Recap

Weekly Action:  

July25 Corn up 3 at $4.4475 

July25 Beans up 10 to $10.68 

July25 KC Wheat down 10 at $5.40 

July25 Chi Wheat down 13 at $5.43 

July25 Cotton down 26 at $65.36 

July25 Hogs up $2.15 to $109.35 

June25 Fats down $1.10 to $224.95 

Aug25 Feeders down $4.00 to $306 

Dec25 Corn down 6 at $4.43 

Nov25 Beans up 17 to $10.54 

July26 KC Wheat down 8 at $6.14 

July26 Chi Wheat down 9 at $6.17 

Dec25 Cotton down 37 at $67.84 

Grains:  

Grains had a choppy start to the week following increases in conditions for all three of the majors.  Ended the week with strength, mostly lead by the Soybean complex after a friendly EPA announcement.  Though the requirements will not take place until January 2026, the US is prepared for expanded crush margins.   

There was a quiet USDA report on Thursday that decreased corn and wheat ending stocks while leaving Soybeans unchanged.  The report continues to place pressure on summer weather as trendline yields are needed to maintain large carryout.   

Corn:  

Corn started the week lower with conditions improving 1% from last week.  Though corn is still below its 5-year average, June weather has been ideal, and the near-term forecast is non-threatening. Monday conditions are expected to improve another 1-2%.  December futures maintain support near 4.34 with multiple resistance points from 4.48 to 4.56.   

Soybeans:  

A definitive announcement has not been seen yet but Bloomberg has reportedly said the EPA's 2026 biomass-based diesel RVO proposal is 5.61 billion gallons, above the API-led coalition's recommended to the EPA of 5.25 billion and directly opposite of widespread market talk yesterday the proposal was expected to be lower than the coalition's recommendation. This is behind the soybean oil market's limit up move this morning along with the surge in soybean prices. Attached is a link to the official USDA press release.  

https://content.govdelivery.com/accounts/USDAOC/bulletins/3e4d631 

Livestock:  

The cattle market appears fatigued. While it is unable to drive the market lower due to any significant trade rumors the market is also reluctant to follow the higher cash trade and surging beef prices. The 5 area, 5 day weighted average for the week now stands at 238.14, up from 235.86 at the end of last week. Potential bearish impact to the market would be a black swan type event (ie funds record long, rising tensions to “cold war”). The Omaha Beef plant was raided by ICE agents earlier this week and they’re reporting running at 30% capacity due to half their workers being detained. Wrapping up in a positive note, below is a graphic from IA State University outlining their estimates for cattle feeding returns in April.  

 Weather: 

The North American weather forecast is non-threatening, with near-daily rains for the Midwest, Delta, and Northern Plains into June 23rd. The Western Plains will be drier with rising temperatures. US corn and soybean crop ratings are expected to gain on Monday by 1-2% in the GD/EX category. Corn and soybean condition rating information from the 6/9/25 report is shown below. 

 Slight improvements this week in the drought map (see below), yet 21% of the corn crop is still in a drought.  June/July moisture, as always, will hold massive importance.   
 

Economy:  

Strong outside market / economic swings to end the week largely fueled by Mideast military tensions flaring. Israel attacked Iran’s nuclear facility overnight. Iran responded with drone attacks, but there is widespread concern that the Hamas-Gaza war is spreading. President Trump has urged Iran to make a deal to prevent further losses. WTI crude oil futures rose sharply $5+ Friday morning while the DOW was down. 20% of the world's oil travels through the Strait of Hormuz.  Early analysis has a crude oil value in the 90s if the Strait were shut off.  Gold prices surged, while interest rate on the 10 year Treasury increased 4+%.  

Something That Probably Means Nothing: 

Earth's rotation is changing speed. It's actually slowing, and this means that, on average, the length of a day increases by around 1.8 seconds per century. 

Quote of the Week:  

“When I hear somebody sigh, ‘Life is hard,’ I am always tempted to ask, ‘Compared to what?'” 
—Sydney J. Harris