6.20.25 Tredas Weekly Recap

Weekly Action:

July25 Corn down 15.75 at $4.29

July25 Beans down 1.25 at $10.6725

July25 KC Wheat up 23 to $5.63

July25 Chi Wheat up 24.25 to $5.6725

July25 Cotton down $1.32 at $64.04

July25 Hogs up $3.425 to $112.775

Aug25 Fats down $2.525 at $209.725

Aug25 Feeders down $3.6 at $302.375

Dec25 Corn down 1.25 at $4.42

Nov25 Beans up 6.5 to $10.605

July26 KC Wheat up 24 to $6.38

July26 Chi Wheat up 23.75 to $640.5

Dec25 Cotton down $1.14 at $66.70

Grains:

Grains have had a mixed week, with soybeans continuing their ascent above $10.40, and new-crop corn continuing to trade in a choppy, back-and-forth bound between $4.34 and $4.45. Grain futures across the board closed down on Friday due to favorable US weather pattern predictions.

Corn:

July corn futures found a new low, marking the first time CN25 has closed below $4.30 since August of 2024, and December 4, 2024 on the continuous chart. Changing weather patterns will be crucial to support current & new crop corn prices in the coming months leading up to harvest.
Currently, the high for Dec25 corn has been made in February 2025 at $4.7975. The high for December corn has only been made in February four times since 1959, with those years being 1961, ‘68, ‘77, and ’82. Out of the last 66 years, that is 6.06%.

Soybeans:

Soybeans booked a relatively strong week, mostly due to the increased RVO recommendations that were announced last Friday. Notable gains marked ¾ of the trading days this week, with gains halting today on favorable US weather into the coming week. New crop beans tested a high of $10.7425 and closed below today’s open at $10.605. The last time we had a sustained period at these price levels for new-crop soybeans was the first week of February.

Livestock:

Cattle futures fell through crucial support at $212, seeming to find a new level at $210. While futures sagged, cash prices did not slow down. Bidders in NE/IA are still sending out high bids, one of those being $370 for shipment out to late July. Feeder cattle futures also fell through support levels, with the August contract settling at $302.375 for the week.

Lean hog futures seem to have hit a point of resistance in the August contract, topping out a recent run at $113.375. This move, starting in the middle of April, has seen a ~25% move in the market. Deferred markets have also seen some sort of top-like resistance, including October at $96.8. Producers have seen less pigs on feed this year than years prior, and time will tell if this market movement is representative of that or an exaggerated seasonal trade pattern.

Weather:

Break out the pool floaties and fan misters, as this weekend is squaring up to be a hot one. AgResource Commentary sent out a map showing a high-heat weather pattern blanketing major corn growing area through the next 10 days.

This heat, however, may come with some sort of crop relief. Extended precipitation forecasts show that accompanied with these higher-than-normal temperatures, precipitation patterns may also exceed what is considered normal for mid-late June weather patterns.

Drought conditions have continued to improve according to the UNL Drought Monitor. Marginal improvement across the Western Corn Belt have shown drought impacts lessening, bringing down the total amount of corn area in drought from 18% down to 17%. Soybean area in drought has not changed from 6/10 to 6/17, sitting at 13% area affected. Soil moisture levels remain mostly unchanged.

 Economy:

The stock market had a turbulent week, partially due to new developments in the Iran-Isreal conflict taking place in the middle east. This conflict has taken off due to strategic airstrikes by the Israeli military targeting scientists and nuclear research/enrichment facilities across Iran. Iran is vehemently denying claims of trying to build atomic weapons, and has launched numerous counter-offenses, striking Tel Aviv and other Israelian population centers. The US seems to be gearing towards involvement in this conflict, with President Trump putting a 14-day window for a decision to be made regarding said involvement. Parties on both sides have been reported to be scrambling for time to meet and hash out some sort of agreement to end the conflict & prevent US intervention in a foreign war. Crude oil markets have seen major swings in recent days due to these happenings, trading in a ~$7 (8-10%) range from $68 up to $75.75

Something That Probably Means Nothing:

In ancient Egypt, tax rates for farmers would be set by how high the Nile flooded using a tool called a “Nilometer.” The higher the flooding of the river, the greater the anticipated crop yield, therefore bringing a higher tax on their production.

Quote of the Week:

Success is not final, failure is not fatal, it is the courage to continue that counts. – Winston Churchill

Have a great weekend!