7.11.25 Tredas Weekly Recap

Written By Tredas LLC

Weekly Action

Sep 25 Corn Down 24.5 at 396.5 

Dec 25 Corn Down 25 at 412.25

Nov 25 Beans Down 40.75 at 1007.5

Sep 25 KC Wheat Down10.75 at 525.25

Sep 25 Chi Wheat Down 11.25 at 545.5

Aug 25 Live Cattle Up 8.35 at 222.375

Aug 25 Feeder Cattle Up 16.225 at 325.875

Aug 25 Hogs Down 1.2  at 104.85

Weather

It has rained, is raining currently, or is forecast to rain in most parts of the country that raise crops. Here is next week's forecast for moisture through Friday.

This week has probably been the busiest hail+wind claim week we have had this season. Below is a photo of the hail activity for last night, 7/10. Also heard multiple reports in southwest Iowa. 

WASDE RECAP

The US balance sheet had a few adjustments, but nothing significant enough to drive markets higher. 

Big Beautiful Bill 

From a marketing perspective, the biggest implications in the BBB are the ARC and PLC adjustments. 

  • Higher reference prices for both programs

  • Ability to take the HIGHER OF the 2 program payments this year. 

  • These increases reinforce our desires to stay flexible in our approach with unpriced bushels as we get closer to harvest. 

In the insurance world:

  • Subsidy increases for revenue protection (3-5% depending on level)

  • Increased subsidy on SCO from 65% to 80%

  • New MULTI-CROP revenue protection up to 90% of APH's

  • Beginning farmer discounts increasing in quantity and duration

    • BFR's already got additional 10% MPCI subsidy (65% subsidy becomes 75%)

    • BFR's NOW get additional

      • +5% for years 1-2 (for a total of +15%)

      • +3% for year 3

      • +1% for year 4

      • Back to original +10% for years 5-10

For reference, these are the Revenue Protection subsidy levels (for everyone) that we have for the 2025 crop year. 

Here is a link to some tax-specific changes courtesy of ISU Center for Ag Law and Taxation.

https://www.calt.iastate.edu/blogpost/one-big-beautiful-bill-implements-significant-tax-package

SDRP

(Supplemental Disaster Relief Program)

What we know:

  • The intention is to give additional assistance to producers who faced "natural disasters" in 2023 or 2024

  • PHASE 1 is going to be a pre-determined amount based on INSURANCE DATA from 2023 or 2024

  • We have heard only a couple of clients who have received applications from their county office

    • These applications have

      • a dollar amount,

      • a checkbox that you agree to take 60%+ insurance for next 2 years,

      • and a signature box

  • We have heard from other clients that their offices don't have information available yet

  • One of the offices I talked to said the national office was mailing out applications today

    • Keep an eye on your mail and ask your FSA office if they know if you'll be receiving one

    • Maybe wait to call them until Wednesday since they will be busy with acreage reporting deadline on Tuesday 7/15

  • There will be a PHASE 2 that sounds a lot like ERP we did last year. We will keep you informed as we learn more in case we need to lean on past year's marketing/insurance plans for verification.  

The example table below is courtesy of Daniel Munch with Farm Bureau. Here's a link to the whole article. 

Something that means nothing

The nation's largest COUNTY fair is the San Diego County Fair held in Del Mar, CA. In 2024, 877,452 people attended the fair.


Quote of the Week

"I'd rather hire a coaching staff that I can lose with first before hiring a coaching staff I can win with."

-Matt Campbell

Tredas LLC https://gotredas.com
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7.3.25 Tredas Weekly Recap