7.3.25 Tredas Weekly Recap

Weekly Action:

Sep25 Corn  up 9.75 to $4.21

Sep25 Beans up 23 to $10.40

Sep25 KC Wheat up 2.25 to $5.36

Sep25 Chi Wheat up 16.5 to $16.50

Dec25 Cotton down 92pts at $0.6848/lb

Aug25 Hogs down $1.25 at $106.05

Aug25 Fats up $0.43 to $214.03

Aug25 Feeders up $1.65 to $309.70

Dec25 Corn up 10.75 to $4.3725

Nov25 Beans up 17.25 to $10.705

July26 KC Wheat up 6.75 to $6.0625

July26 Chi Wheat up 14.25 to $6.1525

Dec26 Cotton down 28pts at $0.6964/lb

***The markets will be closed on Friday, July 4th in observance of the Independence Day holiday.***

Grains:

The highly anticipated June stox and acreage reports were out on Monday, with no major surprises or updates to speak of which resulted in a muted post report day trade. Comments from RJ O’brien Randy Mittelstaedt following Monday’s report.

“Today’s USDA Grain Stocks report and Acreage report were both largely a fundamental non-event for the grain markets as June 1 corn stocks came in right in line with the average trade estimate and soybeans and wheat slightly above the average estimates. Similarly, USDA’s U.S. planted acreage revisions to corn, soybeans and wheat were all very similar to average trade ideas and reflected minimal change from USDA’s previous estimates in March. The one “surprise” today was USDA reflecting U.S. winter wheat harvested area nearly 900k acres lower than what they used in the June Crop Production report, and will be used in the upcoming July Crop Production report, lowering winter wheat production potential due to the reduced harvested area figure. USDA will next update their U.S. balance sheets, taking into account today’s report numbers, in the July 11 WASDE report.”

-State by State Change in US Plantings vs March report

Crop Conditions Report Highlights:

-Corn conditions 73% good/excellent vs 70% expected (68-71% range of ideas), 70% last week, 67% last year
-Soybean conditions 66% good/excellent vs 67% expected (65-69% range of ideas), 66% last week, 67% last year
-Winter wheat conditions 48% good/excellent vs 49% expected (47-50% range of ideas), 49% last week, 51% last year
-Spring wheat conditions 53% good/excellent vs 54% expected (52-56% range of ideas), 54% last week, 72% last year
-Winter wheat harvest 37% complete vs 32% expected (29-35% range), 19% last week, 52% last year, 42% average
-Cotton conditions 51% good/excellent vs 47% last week, 50% last year
-Cotton planting 97% complete vs 92% last week, 97% last year, 98% average

President Trump is set to visit Iowa Thursday night. He will speak at the Iowa State Fair as part of the America250 Kick-Off Celebration. Per Truth Social, Trump thanked Iowans for their continued support over the past three presidential elections. He also stated that he would be sharing important updates on upcoming developments in agricultural trade, which traders will be following closely.

Livestock: 

USDA will initiate a gradual reopening of the southern border for feeder cattle imports. Imports were suspended in early May due to the northward spread of New World Screwworm. Since then, US and Mexican authorities have made significant progress in controlling the pest. The border will first be opened in Arizona. The suspension of Mexican feeder cattle imports has added further support to the cattle markets at a time when the US herd is already at its lowest level in seven decades.

Weather:

30 day forecast from NOAA out showing above avg temperatures.

Change in forecast vs prior run on 15-day GFS as of noon Thursday

Most recent drought monitor map below. Drought improvements focused in the southwestern Plains, western and central Midwest, and Florida. Drought expanded in the Pacific Northwest, Interior West, far northwestern Midwest, Illinois, eastern Tennessee, and the Northeastern Coast.

Economy:

-Politico reporting Vietnam has pledged to buy 2.9 billion worth of ag products. For perspective, China imports 33 billion in Ag products annually. 

-Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins appeared on CNBC Wednesday, emphasizing the importance of aligning U.S. trade policy with the interests of American farmers. She highlighted recent efforts to expand agricultural export markets while ensuring that trade agreements include strong protections against unfair foreign competition. Rollins also addressed global regulatory challenges, including food safety and additive standards, noting that the administration is actively working to ensure U.S. products remain competitive abroad. Her comments reinforced the administration’s commitment to strengthening rural economies through strategic trade negotiations and domestic support.

-Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has pointed to new U.S. tariffs as a reason for holding off on interest rate cuts, citing their inflationary impact on business input costs. However, while tariffs do raise wholesale prices, their effect on consumer prices is often overstated. Tariffs apply to imported components—not finished products—and only part of that cost typically reaches the retail level. For example, a 25% tariff on a $100 part might increase the final retail price of a $400 product by just 1.5–3%. The actual inflationary effect depends on sourcing, supply chain structure, and how much cost businesses pass on. Retailers can help mitigate the impact by shifting sourcing to countries with lower tariffs or increasing domestic production.

Something That Probably Means Nothing:

The saying "knee high by the Fourth of July" is an old agricultural adage, primarily used in corn-growing regions, that historically indicated a good corn crop was on track. While it served as a useful benchmark in the past, modern agricultural practices and advancements have largely rendered it outdated. Today, corn in many areas is expected to be significantly taller than knee-high by the Fourth of July due to improved techniques and genetics. 

Quote of the Week:

"America is another name for opportunity." - Ralph Waldo Emerson 

Have a great 4th of July Weekend!