7.18.25 Tredas Weekly Recap
Weekly Action:
Sep25 Corn up 12.5 to $4.09
Sep25 KC Wheat up 4 to $5.29
Sep25 Chi Wheat up 1.5 to $5.47
Dec25 Cotton up 126pts to $0.6868/lb
Aug25 Hogs up $1.65 to $106.50
Aug25 Fats up $0.92 to $223.30
Aug25 Feeders down $2.50 at $323.57
Dec25 Corn up 15.75 to $4.28
Nov25 Beans up 27.5 to $10.35
Grains:
The grain complex had a green week, ending trade in the positive this afternoon, as well as improved crop ratings. Corn good/excellent ratings are unchanged at 74%, where soybean ratings have risen from 66% to 70%. Nebraska corn ratings are 77% and soybeans are at 71%. President Trump announced earlier this week that a trade deal with Indonesia has been finalized, which includes a commitment from Indonesia to purchase $4.5B worth of U.S. agricultural products.
Corn:
After finding a new contract low in the Monday overnight session, December corn held a week-long rally back above $4.20. Open interest in the market has dropped slightly, and the trade volume on Thursday was the lowest it has been since June 20th. Indicators are still neutral and working towards strength.
Soybeans:
November soybeans had a good week of trade as well, breaking through chart resistance and trading back above $10.30. A chart gap formed on July 7th, and today’s rallying move attempted to fill said gap. Indicators are currently neutral and working towards strength.
Livestock:
August live cattle put in a new high today, running up to $224 and ending the day down. Cash bids for cattle have remained relatively stable, although buyers have not been as aggressive getting bids out.
Feeder cattle tested & failed $326 earlier this week, slightly below the contract high put in last week. Since September 9th, 2024, feeder cattle futures have had a 41% rally in value with few corrections.
Lean hog futures seem to have found support around the $102 level in August & $86 in October contracts.
Weather:
Midwest weather continues to be non-threatening throughout the rest of July into mid-August. Precipitation forecasts show more rain for the corn belt in the next 10 days. Well-timed rains have helped alleviate high temperatures many corn growing areas have experienced this year.
The UNL Drought Monitor update for this week shows hydrological drought relief throughout much of Nebraska and the borders of Iowa. Northern Illinois and Indiana have seen little change.
Current root zone moisture levels are less than ideal. The graphic below from Ag-WX shows the 100cm (roughly 40in) moisture levels. Much of the corn belt has below average dryness through this depth, which is essential for nutrient transfer and plant hydration. Favorable weather patterns may help clear this up in the coming weeks.
Economy:
US producer prices held steady for the month of June, as tariff-induced increases in the cost of goods were offset by lower demand for travel services. On the other hand, the June CPI (Consumer Price Index) data indicated that tariffs could be starting to drive prices in certain industries. The muffled CPI readings from prior months show that companies may have aimed to offset the costs of tariffs, in an attempt to shield consumers from taking on the higher cost of goods.
In the US Stock Market, all 3 major indexes ended the week in the red. The S&P 500 ended the week down 0.3%, the Dow Jones down 1%, and the Nasdaq down 0.1%. Below is a visual map of all 500 companies and how they performed over the week, via finviz.com. The market continues to trade up and down amid US trade tensions and trade deals being announced.
Something That Probably Means Nothing:
On July 13, 1923, the iconic Hollywood sign was officially dedicated in Los Angeles, California. The first reading of the sign was “Hollywoodland” and it was originally intended to be an advertisement for a real estate company. It was funded by developers Woodruff and Shoults, who promoted the area as a “superb environment without excessive cost.” In 1930, the average rent for Hollywood is estimated at $35/mo. In 2025, that estimate is up to $2,640/mo, a 7,442.86% increase.
Quote of the Week:
“Strive not to be a success, but rather to be of value.” - Albert Einstein
Have a great weekend!
