7.25.25 Tredas Weekly Recap

Weekly Action:

Sep 25 Corn down 7c at 3.99 

Dec 25 Corn down 6c at 4.19

Nov 25 Beans down 10c at 10.21

Sep 25 KC Wheat down 1c at 5.27

Sep 25 Chi Wheat down 7c at 5.39

Dec 25 Cotton down 52 points at $0.6823/lb

Aug 25 Live Cattle up 2.775 at 226.475

Aug 25 Feeder Cattle up 6.600 at 331.375

Aug 25 Hogs up 1.850  at 108.700

Grains: 

On Monday, 74% of the crops were rated good to excellent nationally, steady with the prior week and well above the five-year average of 64%. The rating was the highest for the week since 2016. Just 6% of the crop was rated poor to very poor, up slightly from 5% last week.

The US soybean crop was rated 68% good to excellent, down from 70% the previous week but still well above the five-year average of 62%. Excluding last year, when the rating matched this week's, it's the highest rating for the week since 2020. Only 7% of the crop is rated poor to very poor, up from 5% last week.

President Trump announced a new trade agreement with Japan earlier this week. The deal imposes a 15% tariff on Japanese imports and includes a commitment from Japan to invest $550 billion in the US. Trump will have the discretion to direct how the investment is allocated, with a portion to be provided through loan guarantees. Japan has agreed to expand market access for US automobiles, rice, and other agricultural goods. This includes a 75% increase in rice purchases and an additional $8 billion in imports of agricultural and related products. Japan remains a key buyer of US agricultural commodities, including corn, soybeans, and wheat. Also on Tuesday, Trump unveiled a trade deal with the Philippines, imposing a 19% tariff on its exports to the US.

USDA Weekly Grain Export Sales Recap:

Corn sales at top end of expectations
Soybean sales at bottom end of expectations
Wheat sales larger than expected
SBM at bottom end of expectations/SBO sales minimal

Basis Update:

Firm basis over the past few weeks has started to weaken late this week. Much of Nebraska and Iowa markets saw 5c pullbacks.  

Across other markets, basis has been relatively strong but showing signs of weakness in spots.

Ohio basis is 50 over on corn and has been steady, while bean basis is 30-35 cents over. Farmers are mostly sold out on old crop corn and beans, while new crop marketing is behind average.

Indiana basis is strong for old crop corn at 35-40 over. Old crop supplies are mostly cleaned up and gone. New crop basis is pretty weak and weaker than normal, so unless there is damage to the new crop, it is unlikely to strengthen much.

Illinois is 20 over at processors, which is normal for this time of year. Soybeans are more interesting, as a month ago, processors dropped their basis by 55 cents and said they had enough beans to last them through harvest. However, basis has since risen 45 cents and is extremely strong. There is very little movement on new crop. Farmers are undersold and probably in the 10%-20% range on new crop corn and beans.

Livestock:

-July 1 Cattle on Feed sharply lower than expected - 8-year low
-June Placements sharply lower than expected - 16-year low
-June Marketings lower than expected

Weather:

Overall weather forecasts remain non-threatening with active rains expected across the corn belt through the 15 day outlook window, with the exception of potentially below average rains in OH, while average/below average temps are expected for the entire corn belt during the 6-15 day period.

Economy:

Inflation has climbed to its highest level since February. According to last weeks CPI report, consumer prices in June increased 0.3% compared to the prior month, up from a 0.1% gain in May. On an annual basis, prices rose 2.7%, compared to 2.5% the previous month. Both figures were in line with market expectations. Tariff-affected goods—such as clothing, appliances, and home furnishings—saw particularly sharp price increases, suggesting that tariffs may be starting to drive overall inflation. Despite the uptick in inflation, Trump used the report to renew his calls for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.

According to the New York Times, Americans now spend more on health care than groceries or housing, with health care accounting for approx. 20% of household expenditures.

According to CPI data from US Bureau of Labor Statistics the US dollar has lost 95% of its buying power since 1925. ($1 in 1925 = $20 in 2025). Even more recently, the US dollar has lost roughly 23% of it’s buying power since 2019. ($1 in 2019 = $1.29 in 2025)

Something That Probably Means Nothing:

Twenty-nine years after winning his first Tour Championship, a retired Happy Gilmore returns to the sport to pay for his daughter Vienna's ballet school as Happy Gilmore 2 hit Netflix for viewers on July 25th. Many characters from the original Happy Gilmore (1996) make appearances along with current Hollywood stars and professional golfers.

Happy Gilmore (1996) was produced for $12 million dollars and has grossed more than $40 million dollars since its release.

Quote of the Week:

“Just tap it in. Just tap it in. Give it a little tappy. Tap, tap, taparoo.” – Happy Gilmore