8.22.25 Tredas Weekly Recap

Weekly Action: 

Sep25 Corn up 4 to $3.8825 
Sep25 Beans up 13.25 to $10.36 
Sep25 KC Wheat down 9.5 at $4.97 
Sep25 Chi Wheat down 2.25 at $5.0475 
Dec25 Cotton up 47pts to $0.6801/lb 
  
Oct25 Hogs up $1.15 to $91.275 
Oct25 Fats up $7.225 to $237.825 
Sep25 Feeders up $15.50 to $362.725 
  
Dec25 Corn up 6 to $4.1175 
Nov25 Beans up 15.5 to $10.5825 
July26 KC Wheat down 7.5 at $5.615 
July26 Chi Wheat down 1.75 at $5.6425 
Dec26 Cotton up 28pts at $0.6990/lb 

Grains:  
 
Corn and Soybeans had a great week price action wise and creating positive chart formation as well. Pro Farmer crop tour dominated the headlines to start the week, while the EPA small oil refineries pushed markets higher Thursday. In a vacuum, that is viewed as a more favorable and soybean oil demand sparked the rally Thursday. The Pro Farmer Crop Tour is a fundamental talking point every year, and final results came in at a 182.7 corn yield and a 53bu soybean yield. If realized, this would result in a 541mil bushel decrease in corn production vs August projections, taking carry out to a 1.576bil bu and dropping soybeans to a 285mil bu carry out. To be noted, 13 of the past 24 years, Pro-Farmer has understated final corn yield by an avg of 5.4bu and 11yrs understated final by 3.2bu.  New-crop corn export commitments are currently at a 15yr high for late August. One thing to note, both corn and soybean export values remain 5%-12% below Brazil values. 
 

Livestock:  

Today’s monthly Cattle on Feed report showed numbers all slightly higher than expectations. The futures market continued to appreciate this week for both fat and feeder cattle, with both setting new contract highs once again. 

After a flat day of trade on Monday, lean hog future seemed to have caught some traction to end the week higher. There is still consolidated resistance above $91 in Oct lean hogs. 

Weather: 
 
Cooler and drier are the trends of weather patterns as we roll into the start of September. 

Economy:  

Federal Reserve chairman Gerome Powell spoke in Jackson Hole, WY this morning regarding the economic state of the union. One of the key takeaways of his speech regarded a potential signal of cutting rates, something President Trump has been calling for since the beginning of his presidency. Also mentioned was consumer inflation, which has been higher than expectations. Bessent mentioned that this should be a temporary problem stemming from the implementation of tariffs.  

Something That Probably Means Nothing: 

Tomorrow starts the college football season, and we will have college football on the TV every Saturday until Christmas! The Iowa State Cyclones and the Kansas State Wildcats will kick off the season across the pond in Dublin, Ireland. This Big 12 Conference matchup, infamously known as “Farmageddon,” is a highly competitive game year in and year out, with the Cyclones leading the all-time series with a record of 54-50. 

Quote of the Week:  

“He who chases two rabbits, stays hungry. Why not just grow the carrots?” - Will Compton