8.29.25 Tredas Weekly Recap

Note: The markets are closed during the day on Monday in observance of the Labor Day holiday.

 Weekly Action:

Dec25 Corn up 8.25 to $4.20
Nov25 Beans down 5.25 to $10.53
Dec25 KC Wheat down 0.75 at $5.19
Dec25 Chi Wheat up 6.5 at $5.33
Dec25 Cotton down 147pts to $0.6654/lb
 
Oct25 Hogs up $3.725 to $95.00
Oct25 Fats up $1.975 to $239.80
Sep25 Feeders up $2.75 to $365.475
 
Dec26 Corn up 5.75 to $4.59
Nov26 Beans up 5.5 to $10.82

Grains:
Grains showed a strong finish to the week; corn futures rallied sharply on the last day of the trade week and month. Triggering short covering as we head into the extended weekend. Corn is trading at its highest levels we have seen over the past month. December futures closed above the 50-day moving average for the first time since early June. 

November soybeans closed 5 cents higher at 10.53 near the middle of the weekly ranges, just below the spring insurance price of 10.54. Soybean values are ~70c higher than early August values.

The end of the month will close out the 24/25 grain marketing year. September will be the beginning of the 25/26 marketing year.

On Thursday, The European Commission lowered their estimate of the EU corn crop to 57.6 MMT (~4% drop) from 60.1 MMT previously. The commission did not give a reason for the cut, but the major production areas have experienced severe dryness throughout the growing season.

China continues to rely on South American soybeans despite their premium over US values.  China has yet to make any new-crop US soybean purchases that we know of. Typically, China will make significant purchases from October into the winter months. Although domestic demand is higher in the United States, the absence of China purchases could continue to weigh on internal basis levels.

US corn conditions were rated 71% good to excellent nationally. That was unchanged from the prior week and well above the 5-year average. Soybean conditions improved to 69% good to excellent, up 1% vs the week prior.

Weather:
The Western Corn Belt forecast is calling for rain over the weekend. While the Eastern Corn Belt maintains a mostly dry forecast following a historically dry August (see below). 

Economy:

The S&P 500 closed at a record high on Thursday. The Dow Jones closed near the all-time highs put in last week.

September is the month for an expected interest rate cut. Market-implied odds are up to 87 percent for a likely reduction of the Fed funds rate from 4.5 to 4.25 percent, with another move lower anticipated by December. Next week also features a monthly jobs report that will be even more closely watched after the last one included huge downward revisions for previous estimates.

This weekend should kick off with at least some news about how it went for the Chinese trade delegate's visit to Washington. Meetings with China's Vice Minister of Commerce were set to carry into today, but they were not being called official negotiations and no formal statements or press conferences were expected. Grain traders were weighing the possibility of soybean purchases being a bargaining chip for China to use as a concession toward a partial trade agreement or as goodwill within current negotiations. 

Something That Probably Means Nothing:

The "no white after Labor Day" rule is a fashion tradition with origins in the late 19th and early 20th centuries, rooted in practicality and social class. Wealthy New Yorkers wore white for vacations in summer resorts to stay cool and project an image of not doing manual labor. When they returned to the dirty city streets in the fall, they stored their white outfits. The rule was then popularized by women's magazines and became a subtle class signifier, though it has faded significantly in modern times. 

Quote of the Week:

“Not so fast, my friend” – Lee Corso

The longtime college football analyst and coach who has appeared on ESPN’s College GameDay will appear in his final show on Saturday morning.

Enjoy your Labor Day weekend!