3.20.26 Tredas Weekly Recap

Weekly Action:May26 Corn down 0.5 at $4.6675

May26 Beans down 63.75 at $11.605

May26 Chi Wheat down 18 at $5.9575

May26 KC Wheat down 26.5 at $6.035

May26 Cotton up 146 points to $0.6731/lb

April26 Hogs down $2.1 at $91.35

April26 Fats up $3.05 to $233.95

April26 Feeders up $8.3 to $351.4

Dec26 Corn up 0.5 to $4.915

Nov26 Beans down 20.5 at $11.41

July26 Chi Wheat down 17 at $6.075

July26 KC Wheat down 25 at $6.1875

Dec26 Cotton up 163 points to $0.7196/lb

Final Crop Insurance Spring Prices: Corn: $4.62Soybeans: $11.09Grain Sorghum: $4.61

Spring Wheat: $6.19

Grains:

We are roughly 32% through the February–June seasonal window for corn. Over that stretch so far, the average price has hovered near $4.70. Price action continues to reflect a market that is trading within a relatively defined range, without establishing a sustained move higher or lower.

Macro focus:

A primary outside influence on the market continues to be the ongoing geopolitical situation involving Iran. The market’s attention is centered on how this may impact:

·         Global energy prices

·         Transportation and logistics flows

·         Fertilizer production and availability, particularly nitrogen

Nitrogen fertilizer production is closely tied to natural gas markets, so changes in energy pricing or supply chains can influence input costs and availability globally. At this stage, the market is reacting to uncertainty around these factors rather than confirmed disruptions.

Crop insurance reference prices (final):

·         Corn: $4.62

·         Soybeans: $11.09

·         Grain sorghum: $4.61

·         Spring wheat: $6.19

These values establish revenue benchmarks for the 2026 crop year and are now fixed.

Market structure observations:

·         Corn futures show a modest carry from nearby (May) to new crop (Dec).

·         Soybeans are trading lower week-over-week in both nearby and new crop contracts.

·         Wheat markets declined across both Chicago and Kansas City exchanges.

·         Cotton posted gains in both old and new crop contracts.

·         Livestock markets showed mixed performance, with strength in cattle and weakness in hogs.

Summary:

At this point in the seasonal window, grain markets are balancing:

·         Established price ranges in corn

·         Week-over-week pressure in soybeans and wheat

·         Ongoing macro uncertainty tied to global energy and fertilizer dynamics

The current environment is defined more by evolving inputs and external factors than by any single dominant supply or demand shift.

Livestock:

Cattle on Feed Recap

·         On Feed

o    100% vs 99.2 Estimate

·         Placements

o    105% vs 99% Estimate

·         Marketings

o    93% vs 92.3 Estimate

Total cattle on feed: As of March 1, 2026, there were 11.5 million head of cattle and calves on feed in U.S. feedlots with a capacity of 1,000 head or more.

·         This level is slightly below March 1, 2025, indicating a marginal year-over-year decline.

Placements during February:

·         1.61 million head were placed into feedlots in February 2026.

·         This is 4% higher than February 2025, showing stronger placement activity.

·         Net placements: 1.56 million head.

Placements by weight group (February 2026):

·         Under 600 lbs: 305,000 head

·         600–699 lbs: 280,000 head

·         700–799 lbs: 445,000 head (largest category)

·         800–899 lbs: 396,000 head

·         900–999 lbs: 130,000 head

·         1,000 lbs and over: 55,000 head

Marketings during February:

·         1.52 million head of fed cattle were marketed.

·         This is 7% below February 2025.

·         February marketings were the second lowest for that month since records began in 1996, reflecting slower movement out of feedlots.

Other disappearance:

·         Totaled 50,000 head, which is 17% below last year.

·         This category includes death loss and cattle moving out of feedlots for reasons other than slaughter.

Weather: Above-normal temperatures are expected across western and central Nebraska, while the eastern part of the state as well as western Iowa may experience more varied temps. While the warmer temperatures allow soil to warm up earlier thus opening an accelerated planting window, the downside to this is an increased risk of early moisture loss. Eastern Nebraska and western Iowa soil moistures are adequate to above normal following the recent moisture in the area, yet central and western Nebraska are experiencing drier than normal conditions, with little to no signals for any widespread drought relief over the next 60 days. Below is UNL’s US Drought Monitor as of 3/17.

In related news, early this week, Nebraska saw a historic wildfire outbreak across the western and central parts of the state. The driving causes of the outbreak were 50-70mph wind gusts, very low humidity, and drought conditions across the region among other factors. Major fires burned in Morrill, Garden, Arthur, Keith, Grant, Lincoln, Dawson, Cherry, Blaine, and Thomas counties simultaneously. This event now marks the largest wildfire event in Nebraska history with over 700,000 acres burned across the state.

Economy:

The conflict involving Iran continues to disrupt oil supply resulting in higher costs across the economy. The concerns about rising inflation and a weakening job market has put the Federal Reserve in a difficult position. They kept rates unchanged in their latest meeting with many expecting further cuts to be delayed amid new risks. There’s even talk of rate hikes being back on the table if inflation continues. This has pushed major US stock indices lower for the third straight week, breaking below the 200 day moving averages. In summary, consumers are stretched as inflation becomes more entrenched, rather than fading as hoped.

Something That Probably Means Nothing:

Late this week, the NCAA Men’s and Women’s basketball tournaments kicked off. Here are some fun/interesting facts about the tournament. The NCAA tournament, more famously known as “March Madness,” is estimated to cost US employers billions of dollars yearly, due to employees watching games during the workday. No men’s team has gone undefeated and won the National Championship since 1976, when legendary Indiana Head Coach Bob Knight led the Hoosiers to the top of the college basketball mountain.

Finally, March Madness is one of the most watched sporting events in the United States, only the Super Bowl consistently garners more attention.

Quote of the Week:

"Winning takes talent, to repeat takes character." – Legendary UCLA Basketball Coach John Wooden Have a great weekend!