7.10.26 Tredas Weekly Recap

Weekly Action:

Sep26 Corn up 17.25 to $4.395

Aug26 Beans up 47.25 to $11.8125

Sep26 Chi Wheat up 40 to $6.4025

Sep26 KC Wheat up 37.75 to $6.7625

Oct26 Cotton up 458 points to $0.7992/lb

Aug26 Hogs up $0.4 to $99

Aug26 Fats down $3.825 at $235.2

Aug26 Feeders down $6.2 at $354.6

Dec26 Corn up 20.25 to $4.61

Nov26 Beans up 44 to $11.9075

Sep27 Chi Wheat up 35 to $6.8425

Jul27 KC Wheat up 36.25 to $7.1025

Dec26 Cotton up 442 points to $0.8154/lb

Grains:

Grains started off the week with a strong open Sunday and followed into Monday’s close.  The catalyst behind this move was a hotter, drier forecast paired with rumors of China purchasing US Soybeans.  Fast forward throughout the week, and China did in fact purchase multiple cargos of soybeans. Confirmed numbers place China’s 26/27 commitments for US soybeans at 868,000 MT, and purchases to “unknown destinations” that have been speculated as Chinese purchases push this number closer to 1.5MMT. If that number is believed to be true, that would put China at 6% of their proposed 25MMT purchase commitment of US soybeans. Europe’s corn balance is tightening after record heat hurt pollination across key producing areas, with Coceral now estimating the 2026 EU corn crop at 52.7 MMT, the lowest since 2007. The shortfall is centered in southern France, southern Germany, Austria, Poland, and Hungary, and it matters because the EU is already a major corn importer for animal feed. A crop this small likely forces the bloc to lean more heavily on imports from Ukraine and Brazil, keeping global feed-grain trade flows tighter and adding a supportive demand-side tone for corn. For the U.S. market, the immediate benefit may be indirect rather than direct, but it reinforces the broader theme that world corn supply is becoming less comfortable.

Friday’s WASDE report was slightly supportive of corn and beans with numbers coming in slightly below trade estimates. (see report below)

Livestock:

Fat and feeder cattle continued to struggle this week, continuing a pattern of poor technical action. Both fats and feeders traded lower throughout the week, and are now nearing chart support at $228V and $349Q, respectively. Mexico is moving more aggressively to contain the New World screwworm outbreak, with President Claudia Sheinbaum saying sterile screwworm flies will be released in Tamaulipas. The sterile-fly strategy is designed to reduce reproduction by having wild flies mate with sterilized flies, preventing viable offspring and slowing the spread. This matters for cattle because screwworm can be deadly to livestock if untreated, and the outbreak has already created cross-border trade concerns and U.S. import restrictions on Mexican cattle. The release near northern Mexico is a constructive step for containment, but the market will likely keep some animal-health risk premium in cattle until case counts stabilize and the U.S.-Mexico border situation normalizes.

The forecast on the above chart (via AgResource) puts the 2026 spring calf crop at 23.8 Mil head, which, if confirmed, would be the 7^th consecutive decline. This would also be the largest decline and smallest spring calf crop since NASS began reporting the data in 2005 (July cattle report will be released in two weeks).

Lean hog futures had a break-out day during Wednesday’s session in Oct futures and further deferred contracts. There is currently a $13 inverse in these markets, and August futures have been steadily appreciating since marking out a low in the first week of June. Chart resistance appears at ~$99 in the nearby, with the next upside target around $102.

Weather:

The current outlook for the next week and a half shows that the corn belt can expect to experience hotter, drier weather like what we have seen in previous weeks. After 10 days, some relief comes in the form of slightly cooler temperatures rather than above-average rainfall. Extended forecast confidence is low, however, and there is always time for something to appear as models continue to be run throughout the next few days.

Economy:

Major indices were able to notch out another day of gains today as peace talks continue in the Middle East. The US struck 96 Iranian targets this week in retaliation to Iran attacking traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump had previously stated that he would not negotiate with Iran anymore but has since turned on that stance. According to the President, peace talks are in motion, but “the United States has stated to them, in no uncertain terms, that the Cease Fire is OVER!” Crude oil rallied early in the week in response to reignited conflict, running from a Monday open at $68.03 to $74.76 at Wednesday afternoon’s pause. The past 2 sessions have seen crude values decline steadily, hovering back around $71 at the end of trade on Friday. In related news, the CFTC has stayed CME’s plan to launch 24/7 trading in crude oil futures, blocking the exchange from listing the contract until regulators determine it complies with the Commodity Exchange Act and CFTC rules. The key issue is not crude fundamentals, but market structure: the Commission is still reviewing whether around-the-clock futures trading across asset classes is consistent with statutory core principles, including market integrity, surveillance, liquidity, and risk controls. For now, this delays any immediate expansion of crude oil futures trading hours and keeps the existing trading framework in place.

Something That Probably Means Nothing:

Despite losing in disappointing fashion, the US Men’s National Team that participated in the 2026 World Cup has continued to defy expectations. During their 4-1 loss to Belgium on Monday, English-titled broadcasts pulled in a whopping 33.086 million viewers. This made the match the most watched domestic telecast of any kind since the Super Bowl brought in 125.6M viewers this February, and the largest non-NFL telecast of any kind since Game 7 of 2016’s MLB World Series. This also broke the record for most viewed soccer match in US history, a record that was set in the previous round of 32 game between the US and Bosnia and Herzegovina, which pulled 26.4M viewers.  

Quote of the Week:

“America was not built on fear. America was built on courage, on imagination and an unbeatable determination to do the job at hand.” — Harry Truman

Have a fantastic weekend!