6.26.26 Tredas Weekly Recap

Weekly Action:

Jul26 Corn down 5.25 at $4.1275

Jul26 Beans up 4.25 to $11.2625

Jul26 Chi Wheat down 26.75 at $5.7825

Jul26 KC Wheat down 31.75 at $6.11

Jul26 Cotton down 439 points at $0.7166/lb

Aug26 Hogs down $0.15 at $96.575

Aug26 Fats down $0.675 at $246.075

Aug26 Feeders up $2.925 to $369.85

Dec26 Corn down 5.25 at $4.415

Nov26 Beans up 14.25 to $11.5625

Sep26 Chi Wheat down 23.5 at $5.8975

Sep26 KC Wheat down 30.5 at $6.195

Dec26 Cotton down 329 points at $0.7638/lb

Grains:

Grains marked out another week of turbulent trade. Old and new crop alike, corn futures marked new contract lows and bounced off those values during Thursday’s trade session to close slightly lower than where the week started. Soybeans tracked lower early in the week, and in a similar story to corn, were able to bounce off weekly lows and close higher than where the week started. This spurt of life was in part due to rumors of Chinese buyers bidding for Sep/Oct soybean deliveries. The US export sales for the week marked 529,000MT of soybeans headed to “unknown destinations.” Cash-trade connected rumors attribute a majority of these beans to Chinese purchases.

As we have tread further into the growing season, the outlook of a large crop looms over the horizon. One interesting thing to note is the collapse of the inverse between July and November soybeans. In January, July soybeans were trading a 15c premium to new crop. By March 15^th, this number grew to 75c. As of today, June 26^th, this has flipped into a 30.5c carry to new crop (~106c swing). This spread flipping from inverse to carry shows the change in nearby demand once China purchased their allotment for 25/26 crop, and shifting hopes for higher purchase commitments towards the 26/27 crop.

As we get further into the summer, some specific dates may bring some extra volatility. Below are the dates we think might have an impact:

Tuesday, June 30^th – Plantings/ Stocks Report

Friday, July 3^rd – Holiday, Trade ends Thur. July 2^nd @ 1:20 PM, reopens 7:00 PM Sunday, July 5^th 

Friday, July 10^th – July WASDE Report

Livestock:

Fat and feeder cattle both held mixed trade throughout the week. Nearby fat cattle futures struggled to maintain last week’s highs, slowly trickling down towards the 50-day moving average. Prior trade consolidation seems to be holding August fats above longer-term chart support. August feeders attempted to make a run towards marking new all-time highs during Thursday’s trade session and were knocked back down and closed lower on Friday. Multiple moving averages are converging below current trade, suggesting potential chart support around the $360 level.

October & December lean hog futures were able to break out of a slump during Friday’s session due to a lower-than-expected Hogs and Pigs Report. Market estimates all came in above reported numbers, and October lean hogs were able to open higher and stay elevated throughout trade post-report. Seasonally, lean hog futures typically experience weakness from now until the middle of August.

Weather:

Turn on your misters and close your blinds, because it’s going to get hot, hot, hot in the coming weeks. The 10-day temperature forecast for much of the nation’s cropland shows higher-than-average temperatures, and paired with a thinning precipitation forecast, could allow for some time for crops to mature. Much of the corn in the US has been subject to plenty of rain with a lack of heat up to this point in the growing season.

Economy:

Amid a shaky, yet holding ceasefire in Iran, the US stock market showed mixed results this week. Many indices traded lower throughout the week, with a correction seeming to form on Friday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, however, remained elevated, and spiked out a new all-time high during Thursday’s trading session. The US Dollar Index marked out its most recent high since May of 2025, showing the relative value of the dollar back above $1.01 (compared to other world currencies).

As oil futures continue to fall amid the flow of ships through the Strait of Hormuz, fuel prices have not followed. President Trump made a point of this on Truth Social earlier this week, stating that he has instructed the DOJ to investigate this phenomenon. Even though the futures price has dropped substantially, a lot of expensive crude was purchased, and in turn, refined into expensive fuels. Time will tell to see when we start seeing the cheap stuff come back to the pumps.

Something That Probably Means Nothing:

In 1928, Leigh, NE was home to a pig named Dazzler who, for a time, held the unofficial world record for the world’s largest hog. This purebred Poland China weighed in over 1,250lb. Dazzler was exhibited by Raven Pig Meal Company out of Omaha as a showcase of how well their product worked. After his newfound fame, Dazzler was sold to an oddities fair for 5c/lb, and died shortly after starting his touring lifestyle.

Quote of the Week:

There is no growth in the comfort zone – Jocko Willink

Have a fantastic weekend!