7.24.26 Tredas Weekly Recap

Weekly Action:

Sep26 Corn up 19.5 to $4.6425

Sep26 Beans up 46.75 to $12.4025

Sep26 Chi Wheat down 4.75 at $6.78

Sep26 KC Wheat up 13 to $7.4525

Oct26 Cotton up 151 points to $0.7855/lb

Aug26 Hogs up $1.2 to $102.85

Aug26 Fats up $2.65 to $227.075

Aug26 Feeders down $0.625 at $345.325

Dec26 Corn up 20 to $4.875

Nov26 Beans up 50.5 to $12.535

Sep27 Chi Wheat down 2.25 at $7.195

Jul27 KC Wheat up 14 to $7.7325

Dec26 Cotton up 135 points to $0.7998/lb

Grains:

The grains had a solid finish to the week with soybeans posting some fresh highs. Wheat had a volatile week wrapping up with a 50+ cent trading range on Friday. All the grains are well above moving averages; technically speaking we must look back at longer term continuation charts to find resistance levels.

Main headlines:

·       China purchase/rumors

·       Russia/Ukraine conflict (driver of wheat)

·       Renewed Iran tenions (see crude)

·       Hot and dry extended forecasts.

What does it mean for your marketing plan?

These rallies are great opportunities to catch up on pre-harvest marketing goals. It’s important that we address the possibilities before they happen. Can we find ourselves at $13-14 beans and $6-7 corn? ABSOLUTELY. Let’s talk about it before we get there- if you are 50% sold, is the other 50% enough “upside” for us to be happy in those markets? Or do we need to buy some call options to participate? 520 corn calls expiring 9/25/26 are running about a dime. 1300 soybean calls for 28c. But those options will become more expensive as we rally.

Don’t forget the unsold bushels! Check out your whole farm average on Tilley and compare that to your average when Dec futures were 4.25. Our averages across all of production are coming up substantially.

Weather:

Forecasts doing forecast things. Precip from these last few days was lackluster over our main territory and the outlook isn’t promising. This is pushing soybeans more than corn at this point, but there are definitely some concerns about the top-end national yield.

10-day precip forecast:

10-day heat deviation from “average”:

Economy:

The week was driven by energy and geopolitics rather than data — there were no major U.S. releases, so Middle East conflict, oil, and AI-related equity jitters set the tone. Wall Street is heading for its second straight losing week, the first back-to-back decline since March.

Oil dominated. Brent topped $100/bbl earlier in the week on fighting that threatened global oil flows, then slid back toward $95 on hopes of U.S.–Iran talks; WTI fell about 2.4% to roughly $90.

Equities wobbled, then stabilized. Friday saw the Dow up ~0.7% and S&P ~0.5%, with the Nasdaq flat after Thursday's megacap-tech selloff, driven by inflation fears and worries over AI capital spending. Nasdaq futures:

Next week is the real event: the FOMC decision lands Wednesday, July 29 at 2:00 PM ET, with expectations still leaning toward no change.

Something That Probably Means Nothing:

While French crops are burning up, here’s a fun fact about other French things:

The Eiffel Tower is about six inches taller in summer than in winter. Thermal expansion in the iron. It also leans slightly away from the sun over the course of a day.

Another thing to watch this weekend since there isn’t much going on in the sports world: the 20^th CrossFit games is going on in California. It won’t be on any live TV, but you can stream it all on YouTube: CrossFit Games | 2026 Games Home

Quote of the Week:

“Truly I tell you, unless a grain of wheat falls to the ground and dies, it remains by itself. But if it dies, it produces much fruit.”     John 12:24 CSB