9.4.26 Tredas Weekly Recap

Weekly Action:

Grains:

Friday's grain markets drifted into the Labor Day weekend with a distinctly cautious tone, as traders across the complex showed little appetite to press new positions ahead of three days of potential headline risk. Corn was the picture of restraint — December futures shed 4 cents on a range that barely stretched 9 cents, with overnight volume coming in around half of what the market had been handling in prior sessions. The story driving the softness wasn't fundamentals, it was diplomacy — reports that US envoys Witkoff and Kushner were making their way to both Kyiv and Moscow to explore restarting peace negotiations took the geopolitical bid out of wheat and the weakness rippled across the complex, even as actual strikes between the two countries continued unabated. Wheat felt the diplomatic headlines most acutely given how aggressively funds have been buying into the Black Sea risk premium — that positioning makes the market a hair trigger on anything resembling progress toward peace, and today's headlines were enough to spark meaningful profit-taking.

Corn fund positioning will get its own moment in the spotlight when the COT report hits, with estimates putting managed money net length around 450,000 contracts — likely still a record even accounting for some liquidation that appeared to surface in Thursday's open interest data.

Soybeans couldn't find traction either despite the session opening with a flash sale of over 250,000 metric tonnes to an unknown destination, a number that on most days would have offered the market some support.

Bean oil recovered off its worst levels but still finished down 75 points, and crush margin watchers will note that oil's share has slipped to just under 50% after running as high as 54% back in June. The biofuel policy backdrop keeps that number supported relative to historical norms, but the trend lower is worth monitoring.

Livestock:

Cattle futures rallied Thursday and held firm through the session. The corn market breaking lower gave feeders a lift, and the oversold technical condition after 10 days near multi-month lows added fuel. Live cattle look to close the week with net gains, which is the first constructive weekly close in a while. Cash cattle in the South remains unresolved — packers pushed bids to $220 but producers are holding out north of $222, and that gap doesn't get bridged heading into a 3-day weekend. Northern dressed trade moved earlier in the week at $345-346, steady on the week. Slaughter weights on steers up 1 pound week over week, heifers up 4 pounds, both still trending back toward year-ago levels as summer heat becomes less of a factor. Cash corn on the southern plains now above $6.00, which starts to matter for feeding economics.

Hogs had a rough session. The belly primal finally made its seasonal turn, just about three weeks behind schedule, dropping $32 in a single afternoon to $122 after holding $150-165 for most of the past two months. That move pulled the full cutout down to $91, levels the market hasn't consistently traded below since 2023. October futures are set up for a weaker open Friday as the trade digests the move. National cash base price fell to $88, down $1.54 on the week, with Cornbelt prices sliding below $90. Weekly pork export sales totaled 35,000 tonnes, roughly half of which went to Mexico — a decent number but not a market mover given the cutout pressure.

Weather:

Finishing weather across the Midwest has been running warmer than seasonal averages, and with the September 11 USDA report on the horizon alongside a StoneX yield update due next Tuesday, the soybean yield debate is only going to get louder from here. Rounding out the picture, Canadian wheat faces its own complications — a wet pattern expected to settle over key growing regions in the coming weeks threatens to push Spring wheat harvest further behind schedule, with Saskatchewan durum already lagging its typical pace by a meaningful margin.

Economy:

Tensions continue to flare between the US/Iran, with the US issuing strikes on Iran early this week. Vessel crossings in the Strait of Hormuz dropped sharply from 23 on Wednesday 8/26 to 10 on Monday 8/31. Both Brent and ICE Crude Oil spiked into the 90s this week amongst the re-kindled tensions. In the commodities world, corn grinded to new contract highs on potentially bearish US yield potential, with some private yield estimates now coming in in the 178bpa or lower range, as parts of the central/southern Midwest continue to see hot/dry conditions into early September. China bought up 530mmt of soybeans this week on consecutive days ahead of the slated President Trump/Xi Jinping meetings later this month. Lower Chinese tariffs on US ag products are expected to be a heavy topic of discussion in these meetings.

Something That Probably Means Nothing:

Nebraska Football kicks off their 2026 campaign this weekend against the Ohio Bobcats at Memorial Stadium in Lincoln. The Cornhuskers are a -23.5 point favorite heading into what some folks are calling the “Frank Solich Bowl,” as Coach Solich was the head man at both schools. Solich has the fifth highest win percentage in Nebraska history and also retired as the winningest coach in MAC history after notching 115 wins while the head coach of the Ohio Bobcats.

Quote of the Week:

"Work hard, stay focused and surround yourself with good people." – Tom Osborne