11.7.25 Tredas Weekly Recap
Weekly Action:
Dec25 Corn down 4.75c to $4.2675
Jan26 Beans up 2c to $11.17
Dec25 KC Wheat down 6c at $5.1850
Dec25 Cotton down 192pts to $0.6362/lb
Dec25 Hogs down $1.875 to $79.400
Dec25 Fats down $8.325 to $221.350
Nov25 Feeders down $12.475 to $326.400
Dec26 Corn up unch at $4.6325
Nov26 Beans down 5.5c to $11.00
July26 KC Wheat down 4.5c at $5.5425
Dec26 Cotton down 97pts at $0.6778/lb
Grains:
Volatile week in grains as China begins modest purchases of U.S. farm products after the leaders of both countries met last week, but traders still await significant soybean purchases after the White House said Beijing pledged to buy 12 million tons by year-end and at least 25 million tons in each of the next three years.
Chinese buyers have booked two cargoes of U.S. wheat, the first such purchases since October last year, while a sorghum shipment has been sent from the United States to China, a U.S. industry official said.
The deals to import U.S. agricultural goods come as Beijing confirmed on Wednesday that it suspended retaliatory tariffs on U.S. imports, including duties on farm goods, although shipments of U.S. soybeans still face a 13% tariff.
China will restore three U.S. firms' eligibility to export soybeans to China, effective November 10. The three U.S. companies are farmer-owned cooperative CHS, Louis Dreyfus Company Grains Merchandising and export grain terminal operator EGT, according to customs statements. The suspensions came into effect in March during an escalating trade war between the two countries.
The trades focus will begin to move towards USDA’s November reports, which the agency plans to publish next week after skipping its October report due to the ongoing U.S. government shutdown.
Stonex raised its corn yield estimate to 186.0 bu. per acre this week, up from 185.9 bu. per acre and forecasts total production at 16.748 billion bu.
Livestock:
Cattle futures have been sharply lower most of the week with all live and feeder cattle contracts trading daily limits on Wednesday. The sharp selloff came despite Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins reaffirming earlier this week that the US-Mexico border will remain closed to Mexican feeder cattle imports. However, Rollins also noted that President Trump remains focused on reopening the border, comments that likely added to traders’ uncertainty. Fundamentally, the cattle market remains strong; beef demand is robust, and the domestic cow herd is at its lowest level in more than seven decades. Still, the Trump administration’s recent efforts to lower domestic beef prices have caused a massive deterioration of confidence within the market.
Weather:
USDA released weekly drought monitor data on Thursday. Rains across the Ohio Valley improved conditions slightly, while a lack of precip in eastern MN and SE IA were observed. High Plains conditions were largely unchanged.
Economy:
The current government shutdown is not only the longest in U.S. history — it also appears to be the most economically harmful.
Normally, shutdowns cause brief disruptions that are quickly reversed once funding is restored. But the ongoing lapse in government funding, now in its 38th day since beginning on October 1, is already inflicting significant — though temporary — damage on the U.S. economy.
Millions of people are not receiving SNAP benefits. Roughly 1.4 million federal employees have missed paychecks, despite many continuing to work without pay. At the same time, the release of key government data has stopped, leaving financial markets operating without up-to-date economic information. Although, in the Ag sector USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) will release key data in November for the following reports:
Milk Production – November 10, 2025 (previously scheduled for October 22, 2025)
Crop Production – November 14, 2025 (previously scheduled for November 10, 2025)
Cattle on Feed – November 21, 2025 (as previously scheduled)
Milk Production – November 21, 2025 (as previously scheduled)
The World Agricultural Outlook Board will release the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) in conjunction with the Crop Production release on November 14th.
Goldman Sachs expects fourth-quarter GDP to grow only 1%, a steep drop from the 3% to 4% growth projected for the previous quarter. Alec Phillips, chief political economist at Goldman Sachs, wrote that this shutdown will cause “a much greater hit to growth than any prior shutdown” because it has lasted longer than any other and has halted the entire government’s funding. In contrast, the 2018–2019 shutdown — previously the longest — was only partial and affected about 10% of federal spending. The current shutdown has stopped 100% of appropriations.
David Kelly, chief global strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, said the timing makes the situation worse because “The economy was already going to slow down, and this just made it worse.” He pointed to high tariffs, reduced immigration, and the resumption of student loan payments as additional drags on economic activity.
Kelly added that it is “shocking” to witness “how much public pain (Democrats and Republicans) are willing to inflict just to get a political gain.”
On the backs of this government shutdown according to Gallup, 62% of U.S. adults say the two major political parties are doing such a poor job that a third party is needed.
Per Polymarket: U.S. Government shutdown now projected to last 50+ days.
Something That Probably Means Nothing:
The Farmers' Almanac's final edition will be released in 2026, after 208 years in publication. Since 1818, people have relied on the Farmers' Almanac for when to plant crops and when the "best days" were to wean animals, potty-train children or go fishing.
The almanac is known for predicting its long-range winter forecasts and providing articles about gardening, cooking and home remedies.
The Farmers' Almanac didn't say why production of the almanac wouldn't continue, but told readers in its farewell announcement, "So go ahead—plant your peas when the daffodils bloom. Watch for a red sky at night. Tell the kids how granddad always swore by the Almanac. That’s how our story stays alive."
Despite the sad end to the Farmers' Almanac production after 2026, there's another almanac to reference — The Old Farmer's Almanac.
"Rest assured, as sure as the Sun will rise, The Old Farmer’s Almanac—with our familiar yellow cover…and 80 percent accurate weather forecasts—will be around for generations to come," The Old Farmer's Almanac said in a Facebook post.
Quote of the Week:
The small wisdom is like water in a glass: clear, transparent, pure. The great wisdom is like the water in the sea: dark, mysterious, impenetrable.
Thanks and have a great weekend!
