11.14.25 Tredas Weekly Recap
Weekly Action:
Dec25 Corn down 1.25 at $4.3025
Jan26 Beans up 7.5 to $11.245
Dec25 Chi Wheat down 6.75 at $5.2725
Dec25 KC Wheat down 9.25 at $5.1525
Dec25 Cotton down 113 points at $0.6249/lb
Dec25 Hogs down $2.775 at $78.5
Dec25 Fats down $10.525 at $219.15
Jan26 Feeders up $0.975 to $320.55
Dec26 Corn up 3.75 to $4.6725
Nov26 Beans up 9 to $11.15
July26 Chi Wheat down 4.75 at $5.625
July26 KC Wheat down 2.25 at $5.565
Dec26 Cotton down 20 points at $0.6758/lb
Grains:
With the reopening of the US Government, all of us were treated to a late, but much anticipated, November WASDE report. The USDA report dropped .7bu off the national corn yield, going from 186.7 to 186bpa. Beans shaved off 1/2 bu, down to 53 from 53.5bpa. Beginning stocks for corn were raised 200M bu, and soybeans decreased by 48M bu. Markets closed the day sharply down, with corn losing 11.25c (-2.5%) from open to last trade, and beans down 24.5c (-2.14%).
The USDA has stated that the information typically utilized to compile the WASDE report may have been unavailable. The first line of the report reads as follows:
In related grain news, on Wednesday, China had announced that they will suspend retaliatory tariffs on US Imports. This applies to duties on farm goods, but soybeans will still be tariffed at a 13% rate. China has also started to purchase more US farm goods, with 120,000 tons of wheat headed their direction in December, as well as sorghum purchases. To comply with the 12MMT commitment to purchase soybeans from the US, some have speculated that Chinese buyers have been purchasing soybean futures, rather than physical cargoes at the time of writing. 88,000 futures contracts would have to be carried to expiration and delivered upon to fulfill their purchase agreement with the US. Basis markets have seemed to firm in recent weeks, even with a lack of Chinese physical demand.
Livestock:
Livestock trade saw another turbulent week of trade. Nearby fat cattle futures closed near Monday’s open, with feeders following a similar trend. On Monday, a limit-up move suspended LRP sales, and on Thursday, a limit-down move did the same for feeder cattle. Trade sessions between those two days were relatively quiet. While futures values have fallen, the price of beef at the store is mostly unchanged. The Trump administration has mentioned that they will begin investigating packers/buyers for collusion or price fixing over this fact.
Lean hog futures had a break-out day on Monday, blowing out of a downward-trending trade pattern. This breakout was short-lived, and on Friday, the settlement price was back in tune with this trend. This follows a seasonal trend, where lean hog futures typically decline into the winter months and strengthen in the summer.
Weather:
A cold front blew through the US this past week, bringing bitterly cold temperatures to much of the eastern US. The Midwest experienced this Saturday-Monday, and weather has been much more temperate since. This span of nice weather won’t last, however, with lows below freezing coming back next week. Precipitation forecasts are dry for the Western corn belt, but some precipitation scattered throughout the next 10 days may be possible.
Economy:
Wall Street had a turbulent week, starting with Wednesday’s trade sessions. Major indices shed gains made in previous sessions, and tech stocks seem to have taken the brunt of the fall. NVIDIA, AMD, and Bitcoin all fell sharply in the last half of the week. Major stock indices faltered as well but seem to have caught some footing in Friday’s trade session. By end of trade Friday afternoon, the wider market was mixed.
In real news, Andy Flattery on X has been tracking the Casey’s Pizza Inflation Index (the real CPI Index). These numbers have been compiled since 2021, and the information is shocking. After two years of stability, inflation has caught up to the nation’s greatest gas-station pizza chain. Below are the facts.
Something That Probably Means Nothing:
The last US penny was minted this week on Wednesday, November 12th after 230+ years of production. While this may sound like a bad thing, the economics of this coin suggest otherwise. For each 1 cent coin minted, it cost 4 cents to produce. Treasurer Brandon Beach stated, “God bless America, and we’re going to save the taxpayers $56 million.” There are still billions of pennies in circulation, so we wouldn’t recommend hoarding these for scarcity value. As of now, the penny still retains its’ legendary 1 cent value.
Quote of the Week:
“Excellence is never an accident. It is always the result of high intention, sincere effort, and intelligent execution.” - Aristotle
Good luck to all NE hunters on deer opener; Have a great weekend!
