12.5.25 Tredas Weekly Recap

The Grain Exchange - A Tredas Partners in Progress Event

Join us for our event!

@Havelock Social Hall in “The Lincoln Room”

4538 N 62nd St, Lincoln, NE 68507

Wednesday, December 10th from 3-5pm

-Guest Speakers

-Market Insight

-Meaningful Dialogue

-Social Hour to Follow

Link to RSVP: https://share.hsforms.com/19Lp57WF4TpKoVb-uOwwBxQ4k54v

Weekly Action:

Mar26 Corn down 3 at $4.4475

Jan26 Beans down 32 at $11.0525

Mar26 Chi Wheat down 2.75 at $5.3575

Mar26 KC Wheat up 3.25 to $5.3125

Mar26 Cotton down 80 points at $0.6393/lb

Dec25 Hogs up $1.2 to $81.65

Dec25 Fats up $11.85 to $227.15

Jan26 Feeders up $16 to $339.05

Dec26 Corn down 4 at $4.6425

Nov26 Beans down 22.75 at $11.04

July26 Chi Wheat down 4.25 at $5.51

July26 KC Wheat up 3.75 to $5.5525

Dec26 Cotton down 64 points at $0.6751/lb

Grains:

Corn: The March corn market continues to bounce around underneath the 200-day moving average. Implied volatility ended the week at ~14.8%, which is around 2.2% lower than the historical. The combination of strong export inspections and solid global demand suggests U.S. corn remains a bright spot. That supports cash market values, especially for basis-sensitive producers. It may also provide a decent foundation for early-year hedging or sales.

Soybeans: Implied volatility for the January board fell at the end of the week. Down to ~14% from ~21% previously in the week. Around 3.6% lower than the historical. Lower export inspections and continued competition from South American supplies, especially Brazil’s booming export pace, keep pressure on U.S. soybean demand and cash bids. The recent small burst of shipments to China will need to pick up a bit to materially shift fundamentals if Brazil remains dominant.

Wheat: Exports and inspections are modestly up, but nothing to rival corn’s performance. While wheat remains relevant, it would need dynamic shifts in global supply and demand to follow the drive of broader grain markets.

Livestock:

Live Cattle: Cash strength helped support futures, giving the market a lift on hopes demand (or lack of supply) may stay firm. Wholesale boxed beef cutout values softened slightly, which could limit upside if demand for boxed beef flags. Bullish week all around. Rising futures and a firmer cash market are encouraging, though wholesale beef demand and boxed-beef values remain a wildcard.

Feeder Cattle: Showed a renewed appetite as the market extended their bounce this week. The broader feeder-cattle index also ticked higher, suggesting decent underlying strength for feeders currently coming to market. Good momentum. If cash markets hold up and feed costs remain reasonable, feeders could see solid demand for near-term placements or sales.

Lean Hogs: Modest lift this week. Not a breakout, but a recovery from previous softness. It’s not a dramatic rally, but enough to potentially support hog values if demand picks up or supply tightens.  

Weather:

Current: With falling temperatures and winter conditions starting, any remaining fields are likely to go dormant soon (or already are). This week’s mix of light rain/shower/snow won’t do much to significantly recharge soil moisture, but scattered moisture could be beneficial if dry zones persist.
Outlook: The broader climate outlook for the region continues to point toward more heat stress, more frequent drought spells, and more volatile rainfall patterns over coming decades. That underlines the importance of considering long-term risk when making planting, crop-rotation, and soil-management decisions, even now that the 2025 season has winded down.

Economy:

Markets are increasingly pricing in a rate cut next week from the Fed, a third straight quarter-point cut, with many analysts forecasting the target federal funds rate to move toward 3.50-3.75%. That shift reflects signs of a cooling U.S. labor market and mixed economic data. Lower interest rates tend to weaken the U.S. dollar and reduce borrowing costs, which can boost demand for commodities (especially exports) by making U.S. grain more price-competitive abroad and reducing input financing costs for producers.

Early December reports show a slight uptick in U.S. consumer sentiment, rising to 53.3 from November’s 51. Inflation expectations also edged lower, which could signal easing price pressure for consumers. An improved consumer outlook may support demand for food, meat, and feed, which can indirectly support demand for feed grains.

Something That Probably Means Nothing:

This week, the full “Cold Supermoon”, the last supermoon of 2025, lit up the night sky, appearing about 14% larger and 30% brighter than the smallest full moons of the year. Neat show that is a striking seasonal marker, reminding us that winter is fully setting in across the Midwest.

Quote of the Week:

“Do not be afraid to give up the good to go for the great” – John D. Rockefeller