6.27.25 Tredas Weekly Recap

Weekly Action:

Sep25 Corn down 15 to $4.1125

Sep25 Beans down 35.5 to $10.18

Sep25 KC Wheat down 33.5 to $5.335

Sep25 Chi Wheat down 41.5 to $5.4125

Dec25 Cotton up 252 points at $0.6932/lb

July25 Hogs down $2.075 to $110.275

June25 Fats up $3.875 at $213.6

Aug25 Feeders up $5.675 at $308.05

Dec25 Corn down 15.5 to $4.265

Nov25 Beans down 35.25 to $10.2525

July26 KC Wheat down 40 to $5.98

July26 Chi Wheat down 41 to $5.995

Dec26 Cotton up 167pts at $0.6975/lb

Grains:

The USDA will release its quarterly Grain Stocks and annual Acreage reports on June 30, 2025. While recent years have seen relatively stable June reports, the potential for surprises, especially in the Grain Stocks report, remains significant, particularly for corn.

Corn feed/residual usage is expected to fall short of the USDA’s current estimate of 5.750 billion bushels. Analyst projections suggest a more realistic figure of 5.615 billion bushels, citing weaker livestock numbers and anecdotal evidence of reduced feed demand, especially in the western Corn Belt. This discrepancy could prompt a downward revision in the July WASDE report.

Corn exports during the third quarter (March–May) were fantastic, estimated at 875 million bushels, the highest in four years. Ethanol use was slightly down at 1.330 billion bushels, while food use remained steady at 352 million bushels. These figures contribute to a total Q3 usage of 3.477 billion bushels, up 3.4% from last year.
June 1 corn stocks are estimated at 4.681 billion bushels, down from last year’s 4.997 billion but still above the recent three-year average. The stocks-to-use ratio is projected at 39.1%, slightly lower than last year’s 42.6%. Given the historical volatility of this report, the corn market could react strongly to any deviation from expectations.

Soybean demand in Q3 was solid, with a record 614 million bushels crushed, and 259 million bushels exported, the highest in three years. Seed use was estimated at 72 million bushels. The residual component, which often introduces uncertainty, has been consistently near zero in recent years, and is expected to remain so.
June 1 soybean stocks are projected at 967 million bushels, nearly identical to last year’s 970 million. The stocks-to-use ratio is slightly lower due to stronger demand. Given the consistency of recent June soybean reports, significant surprises are unlikely, and market reactions may be muted.
Wheat feed/residual usage is expected to exceed the USDA’s estimate of 120 million bushels, with analysts projecting 150 million bushels. This is based on less negative residuals in Q2 and Q3 and a narrower wheat-corn price spread. Wheat exports and food use were also strong in Q3, estimated at 229 million and 248 million bushels, respectively.

June 1 wheat stocks are estimated at 805 million bushels, below the USDA’s current estimate of 841 million. This suggests tighter ending stocks for the 2024/25 marketing year. While past reports have shown a bias toward higher-than-expected stocks, recent years have been more balanced.

The spring planting season was largely uneventful, leading to expectations of slightly higher acreage than the USDA’s March estimates. Corn acreage is projected at 95.6 million acres, soybeans at 83.8 million, and spring wheat at 10.2 million. These modest increases reflect favorable planting conditions and historical trends.
While the June 30 reports won’t include updated balance sheets, they will set the stage for the July 11 WASDE and Crop Production reports. These upcoming updates will incorporate the June data and provide the first objective spring wheat yield estimates.

Weather:

Once again, well-timed rainfall has alleviated the UNL drought monitor on the week of June 27th. Corn area in drought has reduced slightly, as has critical soybean growing area. The below map is current as of Tuesday, June 24th, and since then much of Nebraska has seen substantial rainfall. Next week’s publication may paint a different picture across East-Central NE in particular.

Once again, hydrological drought is not the only piece of the puzzle! Soil moisture levels have continued to improve in some spots, particularly in Iowa and northeast Nebraska. However, Illinois and Indiana have seen less relief, with 40” water levels falling below the median threshold considered “normal.”

Economy:

The US Stock Exchange saw meaningful gains this week after scares of market shock after US airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. Many indices, including the DOW and S&P 500, continued a climb to claw back losses dating back to “Liberation Day.”

GE has announced a $500M proposal to bring existing appliance manufacturing from China back to the United States in Kentucky. With this investment, Louisville will be gaining 800 jobs and economic support. Mayor Craig Greenburg stated that the city was able to round up nearly $4M in incentives for GE to expand their production into Louisville.

The U.S. and China have reached a new framework agreement aimed at resuming Chinese exports of rare earths and permanent magnets to American manufacturers, marking a breakthrough in ongoing trade tensions. The deal, linked to the stalled Geneva accord, commits China to accelerate licensing and shipments, while the U.S. will lift certain trade countermeasures in return. Despite the agreement, many Western firms still report delays in receiving export licenses, limiting immediate impact. The news boosted European markets and is seen as a step toward easing high-tech supply chain pressures, though full implementation remains uncertain.

The U.S. dollar has dropped to a three-year low, driven by expectations of upcoming Federal Reserve rate cuts and political pressure on the central bank, weakening its perceived independence. At the same time, U.S. stock markets are at or near record highs, fueled by investor optimism over lower interest rates, easing trade tensions, and strong earnings—particularly in tech and financials. While the weaker dollar supports exporters and global equity demand, it also raises concerns about inflation, import costs, and long-term monetary credibility.

Something That Probably Means Nothing:

The last time the old crop stocks-to-use percentage for corn was as tight as the current year was in 2020. During that period, the stocks-to-use ratio fell below 9%, which was the tightest since the drought year of 2012. In 2020, corn prices ranged from approximately $3.20 to $8.20 per bushel.

Quote of the Week:

“Every action you take is a vote for the type of person you wish to become” – James Clear, Atomic Habits

Have a great weekend!