9.26.25 Tredas Weekly Recap
Weekly Action:
Dec25 Corn down 3 at $4.22
Nov25 Beans down 10.75 at $10.1375
Dec25 Chi Wheat down 2.5 at $5.1975
Dec25 KC Wheat down 2.25 at $5.055
Dec25 Cotton up 4 points to $0.6633/lb
Oct25 Hogs up $3.525 to $101.5
Oct25 Fats down $1.775 at $231.8
Nov25 Feeders up $3.55 to $354.475
Dec26 Corn down 2 at $4.60
Nov26 Beans down 5.5 at $10.6475
July26 Chi Wheat down 1.25 at $5.6075
July26 KC Wheat down 3.25 at $5.54
Dec26 Cotton down 14 points at $0.6921/lb
Grains:
Argentina announced they will suspend export taxes on all grains until October 31, prompting weakness in soybeans to start the week. The policy is designed to accelerate exports and stabilize the economy in the short term. Farmers would get paid 25% more per dollar. With this news China bought 10-15 cargoes of Argentina beans on Monday, not US beans. On that front, the next official meeting between Trump/Xi is 6 weeks away.
As of Thursday, Argentina reinstated their export tax after export registrations jumped to a seven year high on a sales blitz (met the government quota in two days). On this note, Trump promises support to US Farmers. USDA Report out on Tuesday, estimates below:
Livestock:
Argentina did include beef and poultry in their export tax decrease; they decreased the duties from 6.75% to 5% which the intention of this decrease appears to be more permanent whereas the grains was temporary (very temporary). Screwworm was in the news once again; there was detection just 70 miles from the Texas border which sent futures higher on Monday (limit higher on feeder cattle).
Hogs and Pigs report Thursday was bullish. Nearly every inventory category came in lower than pre-report expectations. Market ended the week on a strong note following the friendly report and printed new contract highs through the June contract.
Weather:
A tropical wave is across the Dominican Republic, for which NOAA gives a 90% chance of developing into a tropical storm. The system is forecast to impact the Carolinas. The models allow the weak system to make landfall as a tropical depression with needed rainfall of 1-5”. The rain will recharge soil moisture. The Canadian and US row crop harvests should be unaffected by weather with harvest yield losses being modest.
Economy:
USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins laid out an action plan to assist U.S. Farmers
- Another $2 bln in Emergency Commodity Assistance Program funds will be delivered this week
- A new USDA-DOJ memorandum will step up antitrust scrutiny in seed, fertilizer, and equipment markets.
- Reforms are underway to streamline the H-2A guestworker program, including fewer visa interview requirements and a “concierge office” at the department of labor.
- Expanding trade & market access. Rollins said she is personally engaging in trade missions to accelerate ag purchases.
- Rollins promised an October rollout of a beef revitalization plan focusing on risk management and land access, not direct payments.
- Rollins signaled additional announcements on antitrust investigations, beef sector revitalization and biofuel expansion in the weeks ahead, without providing details.
Something That Means Nothing:
The Ancient Romans used to drop a piece of toast into their wine for good health. Hence why we "raise a toast."
For the golf fans, the 45th year of the Ryder Cup started today and the 45th President of the United States (and the 47th), President Trump attended. Taking this as a good omen for the U.S. team this week!
Quote of the Week:
"Always do your best. What you plant now, you will harvest later" - Og Mandino
