3.27.26 Tredas Weekly Recap

Weekly Action:

May26 Corn down 5 at $4.6175

May26 Beans down 1 at $11.595

May26 Chi Wheat up 10 to $6.0575

May26 KC Wheat up 30.25 to $6.3375

May26 Cotton up 216 points to $0.6947/lb

April26 Hogs down $0.6 at $90.75

April26 Fats up $4.8 to $238.75

April26 Feeders up $10.55 to $361.95

Dec26 Corn down 1.5 at $4.9

Nov26 Beans up 3.25 to $11.4425

July26 Chi Wheat up 9 to $6.165

July26 KC Wheat up 29.75 to $6.485

Dec26 Cotton up 207 points to $0.7403/lb

Grains:

Trade Estimate Summary for March 31, 2026, USDA Reports (11am CT):

Heading into the March 31 USDA reports, expectations center around a combination of large grain stocks and modest acreage shifts, but with plenty of room for surprises given how often this report deviates from trade guesses. Corn stocks are projected near record levels around 9.2 billion bushels, despite strong export demand and steady ethanol usage through the first half of the marketing year. However, there is growing skepticism that USDA’s feed/residual estimate is overstated, as current livestock numbers simply don’t support the kind of year-over-year increase being assumed. If that feed figure begins to normalize in this report or future updates, it could tighten the balance sheet more than headline stock numbers suggest. Soybeans show a different dynamic, with very strong domestic crush demand continuing to perform at a high level, but that strength is being offset by weaker exports, leaving stocks projected at a 6-year high. That keeps the soybean story heavily dependent on whether additional export demand, particularly from China, materializes. Wheat remains the most straightforward of the three, with ample supplies and relatively stagnant demand keeping a generally bearish tone in place.

On the acreage side, the market is expecting a moderate shift out of corn and into soybeans, but not an aggressive swing. Early expectations call for corn acres near 95 million (down roughly 3–4 million from last year) and soybean acres near 85 million (up a similar amount). The soybean/corn price ratio has improved enough to favor beans compared to last year, but it sits near average levels historically, suggesting the incentive to switch acres is present but not overwhelming. Beyond price relationships, outside factors are adding another layer of complexity this year. The ongoing Iran conflict has disrupted global fertilizer and energy markets, pushing input costs higher which could subtly encourage a shift toward soybeans at the margin. At the same time, drought conditions remain a concern, with over half of the U.S. currently experiencing some level of drought, creating uncertainty around yield potential and potentially influencing planting decisions in more marginal areas. Balancing that, crop rotation practices across the Midwest and the perception that corn still offers stronger yield potential in a lower-price environment could limit how far acreage shifts go. Adding to the uncertainty, USDA has shown a tendency to miss March acreage estimates, most notably underestimating corn acres by a wide margin last year, which keeps the risk of a surprise firmly on the table. Bottom line, this report carries above-average volatility risk, with the biggest market movers likely to be any unexpected changes in corn acreage and whether feed usage assumptions begin to correct.

Livestock:

Live Cattle: Futures traded higher for much of the week, with April contracts gaining ground on firm boxed beef values and light negotiated cash trade at steady-to-even money. Wholesale beef prices held supportive levels despite some daily softness.

Feeder Cattle: The complex posted solid gains, supported by tight feeder supplies and the March USDA Cattle on Feed report (released last Friday), which showed February placements 4% above a year-ago while marketings remained slow - reinforcing longer-term supply tightness. Cash feeder markets stayed active.

Lean Hogs: Futures were mostly steady to slightly softer. Pork cutout values provided some underlying support, but lighter slaughter numbers and seasonal demand patterns kept price action contained.

Weather:

Weather patterns remained highly variable across key production areas. A front brought brief cooler air and scattered precipitation to parts of the Midwest and Plains, but many regions stayed notably dry. Drought conditions continued to expand in the southern and central Plains as well as portions of the West, raising concerns for winter wheat conditions and early spring planting moisture.

Above-normal temperatures (with some areas hitting 90+°F) accelerated fieldwork in the South and favored early crop development where soil moisture allowed, but limited rainfall kept subsoil moisture tight in many spots. A more active pattern with potential for stronger thunderstorms and heavier rain is expected early next week, which could help ease drought stress ahead of broader planting activity.

Economy:

Concerns surrounding inflation intensified even more this week as oil and gas prices continue to rise, driven by the US/Iran conflicts in the Middle East. Despite the inflation and geopolitical tensions, most forecasts are still expecting the US economy to avoid recession in 2026. The Federal Reserve seems to be in a “wait-and-see” mode, while maintaining caution as inflation progress remains in the headlines. In related news, US equities slid on the week as rising oil/gas prices, inflation uncertainty, and geopolitical tensions continue to make their mark on the US economy. The Dow Jones fell roughly 1% on the week while the S&P 500 slid about 2%, marking its 5^th consecutive weekly decline. In summary, the US economy remains highly sensitive to news headlines, with oil prices acting as the main macro-economic catalyst. Until we see clarity on the supply risks involving world/domestic energy, volatility in the market is likely to stick around and rallies may struggle to gain any real traction.

Something That Probably Means Nothing:

The Nebraska and Houston Men’s Basketball Teams both lost Thursday night in their Sweet Sixteen matchups. Their games were played at the Toyota Center in Houston, TX with the following round set to remain in the same arena. Nebraska and Houston fans seem to have bought most of the Elite Eight tickets. This morning, ticket prices for the Iowa vs. Illinois matchup have dropped to as low as $68. The next slate of Sweet Sixteen games tipoff tonight and will complete the round of 16.

Quote of the Week:

“You do not rise to the level of your goals. You fall to the level of your systems.” – James Clear (author of Atomic Habits)

Have a great weekend!