5.8.26 Tredas Weekly Recap

Weekly Action:

Jul26 Corn down 9 at $4.7125

Jul26 Beans up 4.75 to $12.08

Jul26 Chi Wheat down 18.75 at $6.19

Jul26 KC Wheat down 18.75 at $6.7575

Jul26 Cotton up 44 points to $0.8463/lb

June26 Hogs down $2.65 at $98.625

June26 Fats down $4.1 at $248.9

May26 Feeders down $4.025 at $367.375

Dec26 Corn down 5.25 at $4.935

Nov26 Beans up 6.75 to $11.895

Sep26 Chi Wheat down 18.5 at $6.34

Sep26 KC Wheat down 20 at $6.865

Dec26 Cotton up 88 points to $0.8544/lb

Grains:

Three keys to grain markets per AgResource (see image below). They’ve taken “3” off the table as they don’t foresee weather being a bullish factor. The market is still waiting for an answer from Iran regarding the peace agreement. Earlier in the week war premium was extracted but into the weekend it has been added as the assumption is the longer it takes for a response the higher likelihood of a “no”. Grains likely maintain volatility short term as another question mark is posed, the US is urging countries to support its United Nations resolution demanding Iran halt attacks, but diplomats said China and Russia are likely to veto it which raises the question if Trump’s meeting with Xi could be derailed.  

USDA report Tuesday (see report estimates)

Livestock:

Cattle saw a flip in basis this week as the futures market saw weakness, but the cash market saw strength. The cattle market came under pressure Thursday on the possibility of expanded Brazilian beef imports. While this may not fundamentally change things it could be psychologically negative. Futures technical action hasn’t been healthy since the key reversal of last Friday and the divergence between cash and futures hasn’t improved that situation. Cash appears to be $2-$3 higher this week while June live cattle futures were $4 lower.  

Weather:

The UNL drought monitor (see comparisons below) shows a very minimal improvement in drought conditions. Dry weather to speed planting with gradual warming over the next two weeks. Average to slightly above average temperatures and rainfall is forecast in the 10-15 period for the Plains and Western Midwest.

-7 Day Rainfall Forecast for the Central US-

Economy:

According to CommStock Investments, world food prices rose for a third consecutive month as the Middle East conflict disrupted supply chains and inflated commodity prices. FAO Chief Economist Maximo Torero warned, “If this [war with Iran] goes to day 90, the possibility of a food crisis will be significantly higher in late 2026 and in 2027.”

The UN Food and Agriculture Organization global food price index reached the highest since February 2023, as higher prices for veg oils, meat, and cereals more than offset declines in sugar and dairy products.

The index monitors raw commodity costs rather than retail prices, meaning there will be a lag before the increase reaches the consumer. Compared to year-ago, prices rose 22.7% for veg oils to the highest since July 2022, 6.4% for meats to a record high and 0.4% for cereal grains, while they plunged 21.2% for dairy products and 26.9% for sugar. (see images below)

Something That Probably Means Nothing:

Wilt Chamberlain once averaged over 48.5 minutes per game for an entire NBA season (1961-62), meaning he rarely sat, even during overtime. For context, NBA games are only 48 minutes long.

Quote of the Week:

“Let nothing disturb you, let nothing frighten you. All things are passing away: God never changes. Patience obtains all things. Whoever has God lacks nothing; God alone suffices.” St. Teresa of Avila

Thank you and have a great weekend!