7.31.26 Tredas Weekly Recap

Weekly Action:

Sep26 Corn unchanged at $4.4075

Sep26 Beans unchanged at $11.7075

Sep26 Chi Wheat unchanged at $6.3925

Sep26 KC Wheat unchanged at $7.075

Oct26 Cotton unchanged at $0.805/lb

Aug26 Hogs unchanged at $98.85

Aug26 Fats unchanged at $231.75

Aug26 Feeders unchanged at $348.025

Dec26 Corn unchanged at $4.64

Nov26 Beans unchanged at $11.875

Sep27 Chi Wheat unchanged at $6.845

Jul27 KC Wheat unchanged at $7.3675

Dec26 Cotton unchanged at $0.8179/lb

Grains:

 The row crop complex faced distinct downward pressure this week. On Monday, both corn and soybean futures suffered steep losses. This initial plunge was triggered by macro market forces, specifically a sharp drop in crude oil following a temporary pause in U.S.-Iran tensions. By Tuesday, the markets staged a modest technical bounce as traders digested a USDA report showing a slight decline in domestic crop conditions due to summer heat. However, this upward momentum was short-lived. Mid-week through Friday, weather patterns shifted decisively. The arrival of widespread, beneficial rain across the U.S. Midwest washed away heat premiums and directly aided soybeans in their crucial pod-setting phase, forcing both contracts down to wrap up the week on a soft note 

Hard red winter (HRW) wheat futures experienced a volatile week driven by competing forces of macroeconomic swings and severe geopolitical tension. Like corn and soybeans, HRW wheat plummeted sharply on Monday as the temporary de-escalation of Middle East friction pulled risk premiums out of energy and grain markets. The market quickly reversed course mid-week through Thursday, fueled by escalating military activity in the Black Sea. A Ukrainian drone strike severely damaged a primary Russian grain export terminal on the Kerch Strait, and subsequent heavy fighting restricted truck and vessel movements at vital ports. While harvest pressure and an earlier pause in Middle East strikes initially weighed on the complex, the intensifying Black Sea export disruptions injected a substantial war-risk premium back into wheat by Friday, overriding broader row-crop weakness 

National Crop Progress & Conditions Chart

Livestock:

The livestock complex experienced severe early-week volatility before staging a powerful technical recovery during the last five trading days. On Monday, July 27, both feeder cattle and fat (live) cattle futures suffered a dramatic collapse, with several feeder contracts plummeting by their daily limit of 10.75 cents per pound. This aggressive selloff was triggered by the U.S. Department of Agriculture announcing plans to reopen the U.S. border to Mexican feeder cattle imports, lifting a year-long ban previously imposed to curb the spread of the New World screwworm. However, the initial panic quickly dissipated by Tuesday. Traders recognized that the market had fallen into oversold territory, and a wave of technical buying—spurred by robust seasonal beef demand and a sharp jump in wholesale boxed beef prices—helped both categories recover most of their early-week losses heading into Friday's close 

Weather:

The past week featured a fairly active weather pattern across the Corn Belt, although rainfall remained highly variable. Western portions of the belt—including much of Nebraska, South Dakota, and western Iowa—generally picked up 0.25-1.25 inches of rain, with isolated thunderstorms producing 2-3+ inch totals in localized areas. Eastern Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio also saw scattered thunderstorms, with many locations receiving 0.50-1.50 inches, while some areas missed meaningful precipitation altogether. Overall, the rains were beneficial for much of the crop, but coverage remained spotty enough that drought concerns persist in portions of the western and eastern Corn Belt

Looking ahead, the forecast continues to favor a mix of warm temperatures and periodic storm chances. The western Corn Belt will warm into the upper 80s to low 90s through Sunday and Monday, with another cold front arriving early next week. That system is expected to bring scattered showers and thunderstorms across Nebraska, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, and Indiana between Tuesday and Thursday. 

^^^Drought monitor changes vs end of June 

Economy:

The U.S. economy displayed a mix of deceleration and persistent demand this week, highlighted by a lower-than-expected second-quarter GDP report. The Bureau of Economic Analysis revealed the economy grew at an annualized rate of 1.5%, dropping from the 2.1% expansion seen in the first quarter [usnews.com]. This slowdown was heavily driven by a decrease in government spending and rising imports. Despite lower headline growth, consumer spending sharply accelerated to a 3.2% annual clip—up from 0.5% in the previous quarter—while business investments into areas like artificial intelligence remained robust. 

Monetary policy and inflation indicators also took center stage as the Federal Reserve navigated ongoing macroeconomic hurdles. The Federal Open Market Committee held interest rates steady at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent, balancing a cooling labor market against persistent price anxieties linked to geopolitical tensions [kraken.com, substack.com]. Accompanying June data brought some relief, as the annual PCE price index dipped to 3.7%, with core inflation settling at 3.3%. While these numbers suggest mild moderation, broader public sentiment remains heavily strained by high energy prices and general cost-of-living concerns. 

Something That Probably Means Nothing: 

LeBron James taking a $4 million veteran minimum contract with the Sixers allows him to gift cap space to the front office for roster depth, as his paycheck stopped mattering years ago due to earning roughly $80 million annually off the court. However, his choice to reside in Manhattan rather than Philadelphia will cost him over $1 million a year, effectively eating up a quarter of his team salary. This steep price tag includes a minimum of $800,000 a season for more than 100 round-trip helicopter commutes—estimated at $8,000 per 45-minute flight—plus an additional $300,000 in heavy New York state and city income taxes compared to Pennsylvania's low flat tax.  

Ultimately, arranging his day job around his life allows James to keep his family, media company, and business operations running out of America's biggest market. This lifestyle mirrors Kobe Bryant's routine of flying from Newport Beach to Staples Center two decades ago to maximize personal time. At 41 years old on potentially his final contract, James is spending seven figures on a grueling commute because his professional salary accounts for only 5% of his total income, proving that he is prioritizing lifestyle, family, and business longevity over simple basketball earnings. 

Quote of the Week: 

“Remember that the airplane takes off against the wind, not with it.” – Henry Ford