9.18.26 Tredas Weekly Recap
Weekly Action:
Dec26 Corn down 4.5 at $5.275
Nov26 Beans up 4.4 to $13.034
Dec26 Chi Wheat down 12.75 at $7.135
Dec26 KC Wheat down 15.75 at $7.8375
Dec26 Cotton down 5.06 at $0.8113
Oct26 Hogs down 3.525 at $0.781
Oct26 Fats down 3.7 at $2.15925
Oct26 Feeders down 9 at $3.235
Dec27 Corn down 7.25 at $5.26
Nov27 Beans up 9.25 to $12.6575
Jul27 Chi Wheat down 10.25 at $7.3675
Jul27 KC Wheat down 12.5 at $7.95
Dec27 Cotton down 1.74 at $0.7781
Grains:
Wet weather has delayed harvest to some extent in our local area, but here are some way-to-early yield reports on corn:
· Greeley, NE 170 Irr (250 APH)
· Eastern MO, 240 Non-irr (165)
o Above expectations
· Jefferson, NE, 200 Irr. (220-230)
o Below expectations
· Pott, IA, 240 Non-irr (230)
o In line
· Fremont, IA 220 Non-irr (210)
o In line
· Clay, NE 210 Irr (240)
o Below expectations, noting late disease pressure
· Platte, NE 200 Non-irr (200)
o Above late season estimates
· Southeast NE, 230 Non-irr (210)
Basis:
There are some significant quick ship premiums to most soy
crushers. These are roughly what we've seen trade, of course these are subject to change very quickly.
Bunge CB: +75 by 9/23
AGP Hastings: +50 by 9/23
Norfolk Crush +70 by 9/25
AGP St Joe: +50 by 9/23
ADM Lincoln/Fremont: +50 by 9/22
AGP David City: +50 by 9/23
On corn, the premiums for September bushels are generally in the 5-15c
range, but there has been a big push in the western IA market as the area experienced a lot of rain right as combines were starting
to roll. Mother nature will drive some wild basis swings in the next 10 days.
Moisture discount tool
We made a web app you can use to look at different discount schedules across destinations. You plug in the moisture of your load and it tells you your effective cash price on a dry bushel basis. You don’t need the “Claude” app, you can copy and paste the link into your browser.
If you have destinations you’d like added to this, please email us and we’ll get them put in.
MCO info
Last week’s recap had some details about the newer MCO product for 2027 crop insurance. (9.11.26 Tredas Weekly Recap)
We made a much shorter video now that the price discoveries are complete.
· Corn: $5.25
· Soybeans: $12.33
The video is linked above. To make it as simple as possible, here is a rough guide to “should you take MCO” snipped from the video.
ARC/PLC update
2026 crop: USDA announced December 11th as the deadline to make ARC/PLC elections for the 2026 crop year.
2025 crop:
The MYA (marketing year average) is complete, but we still have to wait until the NASS Prices report on 9/29 to get our final prices to know exact payment amounts. Those payments will go out sometime in October. The link below has maps with each state’s expected payment according to Kansas State University estimates. Please keep in mind until the 9/29 report these are ONLY ESTIMATES.
Livestock:
Cattle futures saw troubled trade this week, failing to sustain the 2-week rally that led up to Monday’s open. At the end of the week, December fats were trading near $10 lower than the weekly open, and November feeders trading near $15 lower. An inverted head-and-shoulders pattern appears to be forming on the charts, with the first shoulder being a branch off of our most recent test of the highs in mid-June. The most recent low (Dec) was $211.30, with trade consolidation around $214.
We also received an interesting COF report today. On Feed was slightly below the average trade estimate at 100.7% while Marketings were slightly above the average trade estimate at 96.7%. The big surprise was Placements (90.8%) which came in 6pts below the average trade estimate and 3pts below the low end of the estimate range. This could provide the support cattle markets need to reverse this week's downtrend come Monday.
Weather:
Even though markets aren’t trading US weather for the time being, thought this was an interesting chart I found on twitter mapping the most sever hail events since 1998.
Economy:
The Fed raised rates 25bp to 3.75%-4.00% on Wednesday — first hike in three years, unanimous 12-0 vote. Fed pointed to oil prices (Iran war fallout) and tariff impacts as the driver, said inflation "remains elevated." Another hike this year is on the table.
Inflation ran from 2.4% in February to a 4.2% peak in May as crude spiked near $100/bbl, then cooled back to 3.4% by August as energy prices eased.
Something That Probably Means Nothing:
If you’re in town for the Husker game, stop by our tailgate for plenty of food and drinks! We’ll be at the corner of 9th and S streets (the old Lincoln Journal Star parking lot).
Quote of the Week:
Matthew 7:16-18
16 You’ll recognize them by their fruit. Are grapes gathered from thornbushes or figs from thistles? 17 In the same way, every good tree produces good fruit, but a bad tree produces bad fruit. 18 A good tree can’t produce bad fruit; neither can a bad tree produce good fruit.
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