11.06.26 Tredas Weekly Recap

Weekly Action:

Dec26 Corn down 5.5 at $4.4225

Jan27 Beans down 39 at $11.945

Dec26 Chi Wheat down 13 at $5.905

Dec26 KC Wheat down 12.5 at $6.3175

Dec26 Cotton up 117 points to $0.79/lb

Dec26 Hogs down $5.5 at $53.375

Dec26 Fats down $6.775 at $214.175

Nov26 Feeders down $15.35 at $322.425

Dec27 Corn down 2.25 at $4.8525

Nov27 Beans down 30.5 at $11.785

Jul27 Chi Wheat down 15.5 at $6.1425

Jul27 KC Wheat down 17.25 at $6.4525

Dec27 Cotton up 31 points to $0.7766/lb

Grains:

Corn posted its sixth consecutive weekly loss, though the pace of the selling slowed considerably from October. December futures spent the week probing for a bottom in the low $4.40s, dipping under $4.40 intraday on Friday before bouncing into the weekend. The 14-day RSI on December corn sits in the mid-20s, which AgResource notes is the lowest reading for spot corn since February 2024. Funds have done most of the damage – by AgResource’s estimate, managed money has now liquidated essentially its entire net long in corn, which removes a lot of the overhang that pressured the market through October. Demand was the week’s bright spot: USDA announced a flash sale of 1.73 MMT of corn to Mexico on Monday (split between old and new crop), and Thursday’s weekly export sales came in at 1.295 MMT (51 mil bu), in line with expectations with Mexico again the top buyer. Even so, cumulative corn commitments are roughly 34% behind last year and represent only about 30% of USDA’s annual export forecast, versus a historical average near 40% at this point in the year. The trade heads into Tuesday’s November Crop Production and WASDE reports looking for a yield cut – the Reuters poll has corn production near 15.96 billion bushels, down from USDA’s 16.03 billion in October.

Wheat continued to leak lower, with Chicago December down 13 and KC down 12.5 on the week. Most of the pressure came from the announcement that trilateral talks between the US, Russia, and Ukraine will take place November 10–11 in the UAE, which pulled war premium out of the market ahead of any actual outcome. Export demand was decent – weekly sales of 538,000 MT (20 mil bu) were in line with expectations and followed the prior week’s marketing-year high – but shipments remain poor and cumulative commitments are down 28% from last year. On the supply side, USDA’s initial winter wheat condition rating came in at 44% good-to-excellent, in line with last year’s 45%, with 83% of the crop planted and 65% emerged. Wheat found a bid Friday morning on reports Egypt was buying French wheat, and funds remain heavily net short Chicago wheat heading into next week’s meetings.

Livestock:

Cattle had a rough week. December live cattle fell $6.775 and November feeders lost $15.35, with December fats posting eight consecutive lower closes through Thursday and trading fractionally lower again Friday afternoon. Thursday alone saw December live cattle down more than $5.50 at midday before paring losses to $3.60 at the close. The driver was cash. Through Thursday, the 5-Area weekly weighted average on live steers was $216.52, down roughly $7.50 from the same period last week, with dressed trade at $339.66, down nearly $13. Kansas and Texas traded at $218 live, with Northern sales this week ranging $215–218 live and $335–340 dressed. Boxed beef also softened, with Choice down $0.94 to $361.56 and Select down $4.33 to $352.32 on Thursday, widening the Choice/Select spread to $9.24. The CME feeder index fell $3.82 to $342.76 Thursday. December live cattle are now trading well below the 50-, 100-, and 200-day moving averages, and the 14-day RSI is under 30 for the first time since August.

Hogs set new contract lows every day this week. December lean hogs lost $5.50 and settled at $53.375 Friday, with Friday’s low of $53.175 marking a new life-of-contract low; the 2027 contracts also set new lows along the curve. The CME Lean Hog Index was down $1.06 Thursday to $63.93, a $4.38 decline on the week. The problem is demand. The pork cutout fell $3.14 Thursday and gave back all of its recent gains, with the belly primal at $87, down from $143 a year ago. USDA’s ERS released September trade data Thursday, and AgResource’s calculation puts domestic pork demand down 6% from a year ago, the largest decline since June 2026. Exports are no help, with China working through an oversupply of hogs and Mexico importing less US pork. Hog weights are adding to the supply side as well, with average weights at 293.5 lbs. The 14-day RSI on December hogs is in the mid-teens.

Weather:

US harvest made good progress under a mostly open week. As of Sunday, USDA had corn 74% harvested, up 14 points on the week and 3 points behind the five-year average, with soybeans 88% complete versus an 84% average. AgResource expects corn to reach 84–88% by this weekend. Winter wheat planting was 83% complete versus an 84% average. Dryness is creeping back into the Southern Plains, and the trade will be watching for rain in Texas, Oklahoma, Colorado, and Kansas before winter.

South America is the weather story that matters for soybeans now. Brazil’s soybean planting is 53% complete versus 47% last year, but Northern Brazil has been hot and dry: rainfall across Mato Grosso, Pará, and Tocantins since October 4 totals just 1.20–2.90", or 27–40% of normal, and highs have run from the 90s into the lower 100s. Southern and south-central Brazil received soaking rain this week with totals of 1.50–6.00" and some localized flooding. The models agree that better rain chances develop across Mato Grosso and northeast Brazil after November 12, which would be timely as soybeans enter reproduction later this month. Argentina is forecast near-to-below normal on rainfall over the next 10 days, but soil moisture there is adequate and no extreme heat is forecast.

Economy:

The October jobs report was the headline. Nonfarm payrolls rose 165,000 against expectations near 65,000–70,000, the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.1%, and August/September were revised up by a combined 84,000. Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% on the month and 3.1% year-over-year – still below the 3.7% September CPI reading. The strong print put a December rate hike squarely back in focus; markets were pricing roughly a 78% chance of a quarter-point increase at the Fed’s December 8–9 meeting, up from about 67% on Thursday. The Fed held steady at its late-October meeting after hiking in September, and October CPI on November 10 is the last inflation read before the vote.

Energy went the other way. WTI crude closed last week at $103.01 and was trading near $91 Friday afternoon, on track for its largest weekly decline since 2020 on hopes for a US-Iran peace proposal. That’s welcome on the input side: USDA’s September forecast put 2026 farm fuel and oil expenses near $21.5 billion, up $4.8 billion (29%) from 2025, with diesel prices through October running about 75% above year-ago levels. The Kansas City Fed estimates USDA’s $8 billion Harvest Fuel Relief program could offset roughly a 50% year-over-year increase in total farm fuel costs, and USDA is expected to release commodity-specific payment rates for Title I crops later this month. Also out this week: the September US trade deficit came in at $105 billion, the second straight month above $100 billion, and the Atlanta Fed lowered its Q4 GDPNow estimate from 3.7% to 3.4% after the release. Tuesday’s midterm elections shifted control of Congress, and the trade is now watching the lame-duck session for movement on a Farm Bill, which AgResource expects to include year-round E15.

Something That Probably Means Nothing:

In 2018, Nebraska Gov. Pete Ricketts declared September 1 “Scott Frost Day.” That Husker team then started the season 0-6, and we’ve been riding the same rollercoaster of emotions ever since. Tonight they take on the 5-3 Illinois Fighting Illini in Champaign at 7pm CT. Could be a chance to start stacking some positivity in the program.

Quote of the Week:

“Even if you’re on the right track, you’ll get run over if you just sit there.” — Will Rogers

Have a great weekend!