11.13.26 Tredas Weekly Recap
Weekly Action:
Dec26 Corn up 3.25 to $4.455
Jan27 Beans up 37 to $12.315
Dec26 Chi Wheat up 2.75 to $5.9325
Dec26 KC Wheat down 3 at $6.2875
Dec26 Cotton down 22 points at $0.7878/lb
Dec26 Hogs up $2.075 to $55.45
Dec26 Fats up $6.475 to $220.65
Nov26 Feeders up $16.6 to $339.025
Dec27 Corn down 5.5 at $4.7975
Nov27 Beans up 8.75 to $11.8725
Jul27 Chi Wheat up 3.25 to $6.175
Jul27 KC Wheat down 1 at $6.4425
Dec27 Cotton up 9 points to $0.7775/lb
Grains:
Ethanol corn basis has firmed nicely across a lot of our area.
CARBON UPDATE:
SIRE, GPRE and other locations have announced schedules. The estimator tool is updated:
Most ethanol plants are paying premium for bushels delivered in calendar year 2026 (this means 2025 corn crop out of the bin and early 2026 crop deliveries. For 2027, you need to fill out a “nutrient budget” prior to any nitrogen going on the ground (including dry). SIRE provides a nice template to use.
WASDE notes:
Tuesday’s WASDE report got markets out of their downtrend with some bullish surprises. We put out full analysis here:
Here are some other interesting notes, focusing on IA and NE.
· USDA started the year with a 183 trend yield on corn and has been working lower since August. We’re at 179.6 now.
· Beans started at 53 and have crept up to 53.3, which would be a record.
· Both states have added bean bushels since the first survey in August: Iowa up 3, Nebraska up 5.
· Nebraska corn was raised 6 bushels in October, then gave 4 back this month.
· Keep in mind November isn’t the final number. That comes in January.
· Over the last 10 years the final corn yield has landed about 4 bushels away from November in both states, and it has gone both directions.
· Iowa finished lower than November each of the last two years, by 2 bushels in 2024 and 6 in 2025.
· USDA bumped bean exports 25 million to 1.72 billion. That’s better than last year but still more than 500 million short of the 2020/21 record.
· Crush is where the growth has been. At 2.78 billion it’s a record and more than a billion bushels bigger than exports.
· Ten years ago exports were the bigger number. Today the crusher is the bean market’s biggest customer.
ARC/PLC:
The horse is not dead yet- don’t forget to make your 2026 ARC/PLC election by December 11th. If you don’t you won’t be eligible for 2026 payment.
Our analysis tool can be helpful for deciding between the two county products:
If you have individual farms that performed below YOUR APH, you need to consider the ARC-Individual Coverage election. It covers losses on your own farm instead of the county. We can help you run the numbers.
Livestock:
Economy:
Something That Probably Means Nothing:
This harvest has had its weather challenges. Here’s a look at how far behind we are (according to the USDA’s weekly reports--- this data is from Monday, so probably have made up some ground this week).
For both Iowa and Nebraska, the only years slower would be 2008, 2009, and 2019.
Quote of the Week:
Matthew 13:8
“Still other seed fell on good ground and produced fruit: some a hundred, some sixty, and some thirty times what was sown”…
Matthew 13:23
“But the one sown on the good ground — this is one who hears and understands the word, who does produce fruit and yields: some a hundred, some sixty, some thirty times what was sown.”
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