4.10.26 Tredas Weekly Recap

Weekly Action:

May26 Corn down 11.25 at $4.41

May26 Beans up 12.25 to $11.7575

May26 Chi Wheat down 26.75 at $5.71

May26 KC Wheat down 25 at $5.9075

May26 Cotton up 233 points to $0.7325/lb

April26 Hogs down $5.275 at $90.725

April26 Fats up $5.575 to $251.775

April26 Feeders up $1.25 to $374.15

Dec26 Corn down 9 at $4.7225

Nov26 Beans up 3.75 to $11.5775

July26 Chi Wheat down 35.75 at $5.8075

July26 KC Wheat down 4 at $6.05

Dec26 Cotton up 193 points to $0.7691/lb

Current 2026 Soybean/Corn Ratio ~2.45

We are officially in the crop insurance planting window for majority of Corn Belt with most of Nebraska and Iowa starting Friday, April 10^th.

Grains:

With Monday’s USDA release of the first Crop Progress report of 2026, this begins our weekly updates of U.S. crop planting, condition and harvest updates throughout the growing season. U.S. winter wheat crop conditions at 35% good/excellent were well below average market expectations of 42% g/e and compare to last year's 48% g/e rating in early April. Overall conditions are solidly below the most-recent 5-year average for early April of 43% good/excellent are the 3rd lowest of the last 8 years for early April.

Weekly Ethanol Production was up 41,000 barrels/day last week, again setting a record for this week. But ethanol stocks also rose 62,000 barrels last week.

Tuesday nights announcement of a two week ceasefire between Iran and US that included a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz led to a significant sell off in the crude oil markets. Precious metals & equities rallied on the news. Peace negotiations are slated to start on Saturday in Pakistan. On the US side, the White House confirmed their negotiating team would be led by vice-president JD Vance, with special envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner also travelling to Islamabad.

April WASDE report was out on Thursday morning. Relatively quiet report as it was only updating old crop numbers on the domestic numbers.

-25/26 US corn/soybean carryouts unchanged

-South American production unchanged vs last month

-World Ending Stox higher corn/wheat

-World Ending Stox lower soybeans

Private exporters reported the following sales activities Friday morning:

-125,640 metric tons of corn for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2025/2026 marketing year

-100,000 metric tons of soybean cake and meal for delivery to Italy during the 2025/2026 marketing year

Soybean market finished the week with strength following the strength in soy meal markets.

Basis

Per Grainformant, below is a summary of corn bids at ethanol plants throughout the Midwest. Historically strong in the ECB vs historically weak in the WCB

Volatility

Overall, Volatility in grain markets have increased over the past two months. Although still relatively low compared to prior 5 year range. See below implied volatility chart from RJ O’Brien.

Weather:

Corn & soybean areas saw big improvements in soil moisture last week from recent rains, but crops in the Southern Plains again saw an increase in drought area & severity.

Northeast Kansas saw rains Thursday overnight with rains continuing in the SE corner of the state Friday morning. Good rains remain forecasted for much of OK and TX and the eastern half of KS over the weekend and into next week, with the overall pattern continuing to see systems push across the same general areas through the end of the month.

Livestock:

Summer hog futures have weakened recently due to sideways wholesale prices and the lack of expected tight spring supplies, while slaughter levels are rebounding to around 2.5 million head after a holiday dip. Pork cutout values have struggled to exceed $100/cwt since early March, reducing confidence among speculative traders who previously held large long positions. Despite this pressure, concerns remain about potential supply losses from disease and tighter hog numbers later in the spring and summer, supported by the latest Hogs and Pigs report showing minimal year-over-year growth. Strong producer margins and limited supply are reflected in elevated early wean and feeder pig prices, which remain significantly higher than the past two years despite easing from seasonal peaks. However, these pig prices are ultimately driven by expected profitability several months ahead, making them an imperfect indicator of current supply. Additionally, strong demand has boosted U.S. imports of Canadian pigs, increasing their share of total slaughter and contributing to overall supply dynamics.

Economy:

Goldman Sachs trimmed its second‑quarter 2026 forecasts for Brent and U.S. crude to $90 and $87 a barrel, respectively, late on Wednesday, after the U.S. and Iran agreed on a two-week ceasefire.

White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett told Fox Business Network in an interview on Thursday that he was confident Kevin Warsh would start as Federal Reserve chairman in May and that he did not expect current Fed chairman Jerome Powell to remain on the board.

President Donald Trump vented his frustration with NATO during a private meeting with its secretary-general, Mark Rutte, on Wednesday as relations in the military alliance reached a crisis point over the Iran war. Without specifying the countries, Rutte said his own view was that "some" NATO countries had failed to live up to their commitments in the Iran operation but that "the large majority of Europeans" had been helpful.

Something That Probably Means Nothing:

Rory McIlroy hosted the 2026 Masters Champions Dinner on April 7, 2026, celebrating his career Grand Slam victory by hosting 33 past winners at Augusta National. His menu featured premium seafood, specifically tuna carpaccio, alongside Northern Irish comfort food and expensive Wagyu steak. It was a landmark event following his "inevitable" win, with veterans like Jack Nicklaus honoring the new champion.

Quote of the Week:

Stop being afraid of what could go wrong, and start being excited of what could go right. – Tony Robbins

Have a great weekend!