4.2.26 Tredas Weekly Recap

Weekly Action:

May26 Corn down 9.5 at $4.5225

May26 Beans up 4 to $11.635

May26 Chi Wheat down 8 at $5.9775

May26 KC Wheat down 18 at $6.1575

May26 Cotton up 145 points to $0.7092/lb

April26 Hogs up $5.25 to $96

April26 Fats up $7.45 to $246.2

April26 Feeders up $10.95 to $372.9

Dec26 Corn down 8.75 at $4.8125

Nov26 Beans up 9.75 to $11.54

July26 Chi Wheat down 7.5 at $6.09

July26 KC Wheat down 17 at $6.31

Dec26 Cotton up 95 points to $0.7498/lb

Final Crop Insurance Spring Prices: Corn: $4.62Soybeans: $11.09Grain Sorghum: $4.61

Spring Wheat: $6.19

U.S. grain markets will be closed tomorrow for Good Friday. After today’s session close, markets will re-open at 7pm for the Sunday evening session.

Grains:

USDA March 31 Report Ultra-Concentrated Summary:

·         Big Picture

o   Nothing in this report was a shock—but importantly, nothing was bearish enough to considerably deviate from war-driven premiums.

·         Corn = mixed, but supportive underneath

·         Soybeans = slightly negative stocks, but bullish acreage

·         Wheat = quietly supportive (acres + weather concerns)

Corn

o   Old Crop

§  March 1 stocks came in below expectations: slightly bullish

§  BUT… still record large stocks overall

·        9.024B breaks record from 2017-18 at 8.892B

·         USDA is showing massive feed/residual usage

·         It doesn’t fully add up based on livestock numbers

·         But… those are the numbers we have to trade

·         We may not believe the usage, but until USDA fixes it, the balance sheet stays tighter than it probably should be.

o   New Crop

§  Corn acres: 95.3M (higher than 94M analyst expectation)

§  Still down ~3.5M acres from last year

§  But historically, March acreage tends to increase later

§  If we have any weather issue, this balance sheet tightens fast.

Soybeans

o   Old Crop

§  Stocks came in slightly above expectations

§  Biggest issue isn’t stocks—it’s exports

§  Everything comes down to China

§  If China doesn’t step in, exports could miss by ~100M bushels

§  If they do, stocks tighten quickly

o   New Crop

§  Soybean acres: 84.7M

§  That’s below expectations: bullish

§  BUT, last few years, March numbers were too high, not too low

§  So don’t fully trust it yet.

Wheat

o   Old Crop

§  Stocks basically as expected

§  No real surprises

o   New Crop

§  Total wheat acres: below expectations

§  Winter wheat acres: reduced again

§  Spring wheat acres: also down

§  That’s quietly supportive

§  Plains are dry

§  Next couple weeks matter a lot

§  Even with smaller production, we still have plenty of wheat, so wheat needs weather problems to really move

· Final Takeaways (What I’d Actually Care About)

o   No bearish shock

o   Market stays supported simply because nothing broke it.

o   Corn = steady but vulnerable

o   Beans = China + weather + China, and also China

o   Wheat = sleeper market

One interesting note on the farmer response rate for the March report…

Weather:

Drought monitor had slightly increased drought in many areas as of March 31, would assume the broad sweeping moisture from April 1-2 make this a bit better, but will take more than a quarter inch to get out of the weeds.

Economy:

Much like the grain markets, stocks, bonds, metals, etc. are trading a daily (sometimes nightly) cycle following whatever President Trump has in store for the cameras (or online social posts). As of today 4/2/26 12.25pm

·         Trump signaling more aggressive strikes on Iran

·         No clear timeline for resolution

·         Strait of Hormuz still uncertain

Market reaction:

·         Crude ripping higher

·         Stocks under pressure

·         Dollar stronger

·         Rates staying elevated

Quick explainer on “oil prices” and why you will hear analysts talk about different contracts:

·         WTI (West Texas Intermediate)

o   U.S. crude benchmark (Cushing, Oklahoma)

o   What most U.S. headlines quote

o   Landlocked → more influenced by U.S. supply/demand

·         Brent Crude

o   Global benchmark (North Sea)

o   Used to price most international oil

·         Heating Oil (ULSD Futures)

o   This is the one most people overlook—but it’s the most important for you.

o   Traded as Heating Oil futures (HO)

o   Represents Ultra-Low Sulfur Diesel (ULSD)

Something That Probably Means Nothing (or does it?):

If you started working on the pyramids circa 2500 BC with a DAILY wage of $500,000 US Dollars (and put it in a 0% savings account), by TODAY 4/2/26 you would have made enough to pay off about 2% of the US national debt.

Quote of the Week:

“The gospel is that I am so sinful that Jesus had to die for me, yet so loved and valued that Jesus was glad to die for me. This leads to deep humility and deep confidence at the same time. I can’t feel superior to anyone, and yet I have nothing to prove to anyone.”

-Tim Keller

For I am not ashamed of the gospel, for it is the power of God for salvation to everyone who believes, to the Jew first and also to the Greek.

Romans 1:16 ESV