4.17.26 Tredas Weekly Recap

Weekly Action:

May26 Corn up 7.75 at $4.4875

May26 Beans down 8.75 to $11.67

May26 Chi Wheat up 20.0 at $5.91

May26 KC Wheat up 45.25 at $6.3675

May26 Cotton up 233 points to $0.7325/lb

May26 Hogs down $2.00 at $93.40

April26 Fats down $1.82 to $249.95

April26 Feeders down $2.83 to $371.32

Dec26 Corn up 5 at $4.77

Nov26 Beans down 1.25 to $11.565

July26 Chi Wheat down 18.25 at $5.99

July26 KC Wheat up 45.0 at $6.50

Dec26 Cotton up 359 points to $0.8050/lb

Current 2026 Soybean/Corn Ratio ~2.42

Grains:

Although it’s wet in the upper Midwest, the south is making big gains on planting progress. This week’s numbers show bean planting progress at a record fast 6%, compared to 2% last year and a 2% average. Corn planting was at 5% complete vs 4% last year. Winter wheat conditions declined another 1% from last week to 34% good/excellent as dryness in the west continues to diminish this year’s prospects.  Wheat rallied strongly this week led by KC wheat futures which helped lift corn and soybeans as well.  Grains are holding support after the recent correction and are assessing weather forecasts and market news around the Iran war leading to choppy daily trading sessions. This morning, Iran announced that the Strait of Hormuz is completely open for commercial vessels through the remaining period of ceasefire following the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon.  Oil prices are down $10+ on the news, while stock prices are up sharply. President Trump stated that it may not be necessary to extend the two-week ceasefire as they may have a deal by the middle of next week. If so, we may see markets return to a more normal trade with fundamentals and weather playing a bigger role in prices.

The Buenos Aries Grain Exchange raised their estimate of the Argentine corn crop to 61 MMT from 57 MMT previously, providing support for ideas the crop is likely well above the USDA’s current 52 MMT estimate. The Argentine Ag Secretary’s latest crop progress update indicated the corn crop is now 29% harvested vs 24% last year and 22% average. The Argentine soybean harvest is now 7% complete vs 6% last year, slightly behind the average of 10%. 

The Grain Industry Association of Western Australia expects a shift away from wheat acres to canola for the 26/27 crop citing high fertilizer prices. Wheat planting typically starts in late April/early May with this year’s acres expected to be 9.1 million, down 14% from last year while canola acres are expected to rise 16% to 4.9 million.

Weather: 

The GFS model is indicating much better rain chances for western portions of the central plains and nearly all of NE and KS in a rain event starting next weekend, April 24-26. The European model has yet to moving in that direction, keeping rain ideas solid for much of OK but still only reaching eastern KS and limited areas of eastern NE. The rest of the Midwest and east are expected to see good rain amounts over the next week with some rain moving into the dry areas of the southeast which would benefit recently planted crops.

Livestock:

Since the start of the year, total cow slaughter has been trending below last year’s levels, with the year-to-date total through March at 1.17 million head, down -5%, or about 57,000 head, compared to the same period. Total cow slaughter is comprised of both beef cow and dairy cow slaughter. Since the start of the year, beef cow slaughter and dairy cow slaughter have been trending in different directions. Year-to-date through March, beef cow slaughter has totaled about 480,000 head, which is a decline of -17%, or nearly 100,000 head, from the same period in 2025. Meanwhile, year to-date dairy cow slaughter has been up +7%, or just over 42,000 head, compared to the same period last year, to 692,000 head. Even with dairy cow slaughter being up year to date, this increase has been offset by the decline in beef cow slaughter. During the first quarter of 2025, weekly slaughter data showed that 47% of total cows slaughtered were beef cows, and 53% were dairy cows. This year, those numbers are 41% and 59% respectively, signaling a shift this year to more dairy cow slaughter. This shift is not completely unexpected, given that the dairy cow herd was reported at 9.615 million head in February, up +2%, or 211,000 head, from last year and at the highest level in more than 30 years.

Economy:

The DOW rallied over 900 points today and the S&P 500 broke above 7,100 for the first time ever, with the Russell 2000 making new highs as well, on the news the Strait of Hormuz was open and peace talks are making progress.  Consumer spending remains stable and companies are getting a boost to their after-tax earnings from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, helped by continued growth in AI (also supportive of stock prices).

The Senate voted 50-49 this week to overturn protections on Minnesota’s Superior National Forest, known as the Boundary Waters, clearing the way for a stalled mining project proposed by Chilean mining conglomerate Twin Metals Minnesota. They plan to access copper, nickel, cobalt, and platinum buried deep under the national forest raising environmental concerns.

Something That Probably Means Nothing:

This year’s tax deadline fell on Wednesday this week and the IRS is a notorious stickler for on-time filing—which no one knows better than Jack Swigert, the command module pilot for Apollo 13, who joined the crew at the last minute. He was mid-mission when he realized that he was going to miss the April 15 tax deadline, so he radioed Houston to request an extension. Although the ground crew laughed at what they presumed was a joke, Swigert was dead serious. According to NASA transcripts, he said, "Hey, listen, it ain’t too funny; things kind of happened real fast down there, and I do need an extension. I didn’t get mine filed, and this is serious."

This sort of thing happens more than you might expect. In 2005, NASA astronaut Leroy Chiao was commanding the 10th expedition to the International Space Station when Tax Day reared its ugly head. He petitioned his sister, an accountant, to file an extension on his behalf, and he got right on it when he returned to Earth on April 24.

Quote of the Week:

“The only way to do great work is to love what you do.” – Steve Jobs

Have a great weekend!