4.24.26 Tredas Weekly Recap

Weekly Action:

May26 Corn up 6.25 to $4.55

May26 Beans down 3.25 at $11.6375

May26 Chi Wheat up 16.5 to $6.075

May26 KC Wheat up 22.25 to $6.59

May26 Cotton up 353 points to $0.7678/lb

May26 Hogs up $0.65 to $94.3

June26 Fats down $2.075 at $245.225

May26 Feeders down $4.625 at $360.9

Dec26 Corn up 7.25 to $4.8425

Nov26 Beans down 0.75 at $11.5575

July26 Chi Wheat up 17.25 to $6.1625

July26 KC Wheat up 19.75 to $6.6975

Dec26 Cotton up 4 points to $0.8054/lb

Corn Seasonal % & Price: 50% & 4.75 Dec26

Soybean Seasonal % & Price: 10% & 11.55 Nov26

Grains:

Soil moisture conditions vary widely across the region. Northern and eastern areas have received heavy rainfall and are dealing with excess moisture, delaying fieldwork, while areas south of I-70 and parts of the western Corn Belt remain much drier. Nebraska stands out with severe drought conditions, receiving less than an inch of rain since October and facing concerns around surface water and irrigation supplies. States like Illinois and Indiana have seen recent improvements in topsoil moisture, though subsoil levels still need replenishment in some areas.

Planting progress is off to a mixed and generally slow start, with wetter regions lagging behind while drier southern areas are further along. Some shifts between corn and soybean acres are expected, driven by both crop rotation needs and input costs, though most states anticipate relatively normal rotations overall. Early progress is most notable in southern Illinois and parts of Indiana, while northern areas across multiple states remain too wet or too cold to begin in earnest.

USDA Weekly Crop Progress Update:

-Corn planting 11% complete vs 11% expected (8-18% range), 5% last week, 11% last year, 9% average

-Soybean planting 12% complete vs 12% expected (10-15% range), 6% last week, 7% last year, 5% average

-Winter wheat conditions 30% good/excellent vs 33% expected (32-36% range of ideas), 34% g/e last week, 45% g/e last year

-HRW conditions down last week, SRW/white mostly unchanged

-Spring wheat planting % complete vs 13% expected (11-15% range), 6% last week, % last year, % average

-Cotton planting 11% complete vs 7% last week, 10% last year, 10% average

-Oats 44% planted vs 36% last week, 51% last year, 45% average

-Sorghum 15% planted vs 13% last week, 17% last year, 16% average

Old Crop Basis Update:

Weather:

This weeks drought monitor showed a little improvement through Central corn belt, Texas up towards Michigan, but showed increased drought severity in Western corn belt and southeast. Over the next 7–10 days, the Corn Belt is shaping up to see a fairly mixed weather pattern, with a clear split between wetter eastern areas and drier western regions.

Across Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio, expect periodic rounds of rain every few days, keeping soil moisture levels elevated. Some areas could see heavier totals, which may slow fieldwork and planting progress at times. Temperatures should run near to slightly above normal, generally supportive of early crop development where planting has occurred.

In contrast, the western Corn Belt (Nebraska, western Iowa, parts of the Dakotas) is likely to stay on the drier side overall, with only scattered and lighter precipitation chances. Should allow for continued good planting windows, but ongoing dryness will remain a concern. Temperatures should trend mild to warm, with a few warmer stretches helping push soil temps higher.

Overall, it’s a pattern of “feast or famine”—favorable planting weather in the west but needing moisture, while the east has the moisture but may fight delays getting crops in the ground.

Economy:

The U.S. economy this week continues to show a mixed picture of slow growth paired with rising inflation pressures. Recent data suggests modest expansion, with estimates for first-quarter GDP hovering around ~1%–1.2%, indicating the economy is still growing but at a subdued pace. At the same time, both manufacturing and services activity have ticked higher, pointing to some resilience in business activity despite broader uncertainty.

Inflation, however, is re-emerging as the dominant concern. Price pressures are accelerating again—driven largely by higher energy costs and supply disruptions tied to tensions in the Middle East. Oil prices have surged above $100/barrel, feeding through to higher input costs and consumer prices, while some businesses are reporting “panic buying” behavior similar to past supply shocks. This has complicated the outlook for the Federal Reserve, which is now widely expected to hold interest rates steady as it balances persistent inflation against only moderate economic growth.

The labor market remains a key bright spot but is showing signs of cooling. Weekly jobless claims remain low and layoffs are limited, signaling stability, but hiring has slowed into what economists describe as a “low-hire, low-fire” environment. Job growth is still positive, but momentum has eased compared to earlier periods, and risks are building if inflation continues to weigh on business activity and consumer demand.

Outside of labor, interest-rate-sensitive sectors like housing remain under pressure. Mortgage rates are hovering a little above 6%, keeping home sales sluggish and affordability tight. Financial markets have been volatile but relatively stable overall, with investors reacting cautiously to the competing forces of inflation, geopolitics, and central bank policy.

Bottom line: The U.S. economy is still holding together, but the narrative this week is clear—inflation is heating back up just as growth is slowing, putting the Fed in a difficult position and keeping uncertainty elevated heading into the summer.

Something That Probably Means Nothing:

The Straight of Hormuz isn’t the only body of water under heavy regulation these days. The U.S. Coast Guard Marine Safety Unit Pittsburgh will enforce a security zone on local waterways during the NFL Draft to ensure public safety, safeguard event participants, and protect the maritime transportation system.

The security zone will be in effect from 12:00 a.m. on April 23 through 11:59 p.m. on April 25, 2026.

The regulated areas will include:

• Ohio River: Mile Marker 0.0 to 0.5 (near Rivers Casino)

• Allegheny River: Mile Marker 0.0 to 0.6 (at Roberto Clemente Bridge)

• Monongahela River: Mile Marker 0.0 to 0.3 (at Fort Pitt Bridge)

During the enforcement period, all recreational and commercial vessel traffic is prohibited from entering the security zone without permission from the U.S. Coast Guard Captain of the Port or the U.S. Coast Guard on-scene Patrol Commander. The only boats permitted within this zone are the Gateway Clipper and boats pre-approved by the event. Mariners requesting authorization to transit the zone must contact MSU Pittsburgh.

Quote of the Week:

“The best math you can learn is how to calculate the future cost of current decisions.”

Thanks and have a great weekend!