5.1.26 Tredas Weekly Recap

Weekly Action:

Jul26 Corn up 16.75 to $4.8025

Jul26 Beans up 26.5 to $12.0325

Jul26 Chi Wheat up 21.5 to $6.3775

Jul26 KC Wheat up 26 to $6.945

Jul26 Cotton up 483 points to $0.8419/lb

May26 Hogs down $1.475 at $92.825

June26 Fats up $7.775 to $253

May26 Feeders up $10.5 to $371.4

Dec26 Corn up 14.5 to $4.9875

Nov26 Beans up 27 to $11.8275

Sep26 Chi Wheat up 23 to $6.525

Sep26 KC Wheat up 27 to $7.065

Dec26 Cotton up 402 points to $0.8456/lb

Grains:

Corn, beans, and wheat all had a positive week. New crop futures for corn and soybeans both marked new recent highs in Friday’s session, with Dec corn hitting $5.0175 and Nov beans hitting $11.845. Wheat also marked out new recent highs this week on Wednesday, but sharply corrected and ended slightly higher to end the week.

Nationwide planting progress seems to be ahead of pace, according to AgResource Commentary. They peg corn plantings at 25% (6% ahead of 2025), soybeans at 23% (11% ahead of the 5yr average). Soil moisture seems to be adequate across the Eastern corn belt, but cooler temperatures may inhibit plant emergence for the time being.

Traders are waiting on any new news regarding President Trump’s arranged meeting mid-May with China’s Xi Jinping. News has been lackluster on this front, with the majority of world trade revolving around the ongoing ceasefire/blockade in the Strait of Hormuz. Grain prices have been elevated in response to this conflict, with worldwide wheat, ethanol, and soyoil demand being impacted. Time will tell what is on the table for the China/US meeting, but soybeans seem to be a point of emphasis according to the administration.

In grain related news, a new 2026 Farm Bill passed the House of Representatives this week. This bill will now move onto the Senate, where it will most likely be amended again. Year-round ethanol blending was not included in the passed draft of the bill, but is expected to be brought in as a separate bill in coming weeks.

Livestock:

Fat and feeder cattle traded steadily higher all week, marking out new contract highs in the nearby months in Friday’s trade. Fat cattle pulled back slightly towards the end of the session, and feeders pulled back further towards chart consolidation. Nearby chart support in feeders appears to be ~$366 August, and below that $358. June fat cattle appear to have strong support around $248 with the convergence of the 10- and 20-day moving average.

Lean hog futures traded violently towards the end of the week, showing an apparent correction on Wednesday, reversing on Thursday, and gapping lower to close on Friday. Lean hog futures typically have a seasonal tendency to trade higher into mid-summer and taper off towards fall. Today’s reversal lower puts June futures at risk of trading below $1/cwt.

Weather:

The UNL drought monitor shows little relief in the state of Nebraska in this week’s revision. Much of the state is in elevated drought, and sparse rain throughout state is helping as it comes along.

Extended forecasts show relief coming to much of the US, and little rain hitting Western NE/KS where it is needed for not only drought relief, but also the finishing of a growing wheat crop. Along with sparse rains, the general forecast for temperature appears to be cooler than average this time of year.

Economy:

The Federal Reserve held interest rates at 3.5-3.75%, leaning toward more uncertainty and no relief on borrowing costs in the short term. Inflation is still hanging around that 3% mark, heavily due to the reactions in the energy sector amid the ongoing tensions between the US and Iran. The overall US economy was resilient in Q1 2026, with the GDP rising, driven by strong business investment, primarily in AI. Inflation surged to 3.3% for the month of March, with consumer spending increasing by 0.9%. Consumer sentiment dropped to a record low, signaling pressure from higher fuel and borrowing costs, despite strong economic activity in the month of March. Energy values continue to be volatile in lieu of the conflicts in the Middle East, causing diesel and gasoline prices to increase. Overall, the US economy is holding steady with strong demand and activity, but increased costs, tightening credit, and energy-driven inflation continue to squeeze margins and add to the already increasing uncertainty across sectors, including agriculture.

Something That Probably Means Nothing:

Malt flavoring is created in an odd manner. To get the flavor required, grains must be soaked in water to begin the germination process. During this process, starch is turned into sugar. At this point, before sprout emergence, the grains are then baked and ground, to be turned into flavoring.

Quote of the Week:

“In the middle of difficulty lies opportunity.” – Albert Einstein

Thank you and have a great weekend!