5.15.26 Tredas Weekly Recap

Weekly Action:

Jul26 Corn down 15.5 at $4.5575

Jul26 Beans down 31 at $11.77

Jul26 Chi Wheat up 16.75 to $6.3575

Jul26 KC Wheat up 12.25 to $6.88

Jul26 Cotton down 402 points at $0.8061/lb

June26 Hogs up $0.125 to $98.75

June26 Fats up $5 to $253.9

May26 Feeders up $1.3 to $368.675

Dec26 Corn down 12.5 at $4.81

Nov26 Beans down 18.75 at $11.7075

Sep26 Chi Wheat up 15.75 to $6.4975

Sep26 KC Wheat up 11 to $6.975

Dec26 Cotton down 355 points at $0.8189/lb

Grains:

Grain markets had a volatile week as traders tried to balance the May WASDE Report, weather concerns, and constantly shifting expectations surrounding trade negotiations between President Donald Trump and China’s Xi Jinping.

Starting with the May WASDE, Tuesday’s report projected a very large 2026/27 U.S. corn crop near 16 billion bushels, though strong ethanol use and export demand kept the outlook from being overly bearish with projected ending stocks at 1.957 billion bushels. 26/27 soybean projections were supportive, with tighter-than-expected ending stocks at 310 million bushels vs an average trade guess of 355 million. However, the market remained heavily focused on Chinese demand prospects and competition from Brazil’s large crop. Wheat was the most bullish portion of the report, as USDA significantly reduced U.S. wheat 26/27 ending stocks to 762 million bushels compared to an average trade guess of 833 million. The cut came as a result of extreme drought in the Plains and poor winter wheat conditions. All three commodities saw slight cuts to World Ending Stocks projections and markets responded by marking fresh yearly highs in new crop contracts with old crop contracts not far behind.

The fun came to a screeching halt on Thursday as grain markets sold off with traders becoming disappointed in the lack of concrete agricultural purchase commitments coming out of the Trump-Xi meetings. The fund liquidation continued into Friday with markets closing in the red on the week. As we work deeper into May, grains could continue to be volatile as the trade attempts to balance weather, China headlines, and an ongoing situation in the Middle East.

Livestock:

Live cattle futures finished the week on a strong note while being supported by cash trade in the mid 260’s. The US/China Summit was viewed as positive as China is expected to renew their licenses with beef packing plants in the United States. Their main focus/holdback is dependent on the types of vaccines animals are given. May Cattle on Feed Report will be released next Friday, May 22^nd.

Weather:

Economy:

This week the U.S. economy was dominated by inflation concerns, rising Treasury yields, renewed focus on tariffs and trade policy, and high-stakes negotiations between President Donald Trump and China’s Xi Jinping. The stock market was volatile this week after another strong rally earlier in May pushed major indexes near record highs. By Friday, however, markets turned sharply lower as Treasury yields surged, oil prices jumped, and inflation fears intensified. At the pump, national average gasoline prices have climbed almost 40cts/gallon the last three weeks to $4.50. Diesel has made a similar move with the national average exceeding $5.60.

Something That Probably Means Nothing:

There is rain in the weekend forecast…

Quote of the Week:

“Give me six hours to chop down a tree and I will spend the first four sharpening the axe.”

— Abraham Lincoln