5.22.26 Tredas Weekly Recap

Weekly Action:

Jul26 Corn up 7.5 to $4.6325

Jul26 Beans up 19.5 to $11.965

Jul26 Chi Wheat up 10.5 to $6.4625

Jul26 KC Wheat down 6 at $6.82

Jul26 Cotton down 319 points at $0.7742/lb

June26 Hogs down $3 at $95.75

June26 Fats down $4.6 at $249.3

Aug26 Feeders down $11.6 at $349.85

Dec26 Corn up 5.5 to $4.865

Nov26 Beans up 17 to $11.8775

Sep26 Chi Wheat up 9.5 to $6.5925

Sep26 KC Wheat down 4.25 at $6.9325

Dec26 Cotton down 256 points at $0.7933/lb

Financial and Grain Markets will be closed Monday, May 25^th in observance of Memorial Day.

Grains:

Grain markets had another China-driven rollercoaster this week. Over the weekend following last week's Trump-Xi summit, the White House released a fact sheet stating that China had committed to purchasing at least $17 billion per year in US agricultural products through 2028. This is on top of the 25 million metric ton soybean commitment already made in October of 2025. Markets gapped sharply higher Monday morning with corn and soybeans surging on the news. However, the rally struggled to hold. By Wednesday, China's Commerce Ministry notably avoided confirming the $17 billion figure, instead referring more broadly to expanded bilateral trade. That denial, combined with the fact that no actual flash sales materialized in the days following the announcement, triggered profit taking and speculative long liquidation mid-week. Markets did find their footing into Friday, recovering modestly off the week's lows, though most of Monday's gains remain erased. The market's message has been consistent all week, traders want to see purchases, not promises.

Wheat continues to have its own fundamental story apart from regular trade. Winter wheat crop conditions continue to deteriorate, with only 27% of the US winter wheat crop rated good to excellent, down sharply from 52% a year ago. USDA's latest estimate puts the 2026/27 total winter wheat crop at roughly 1.05 billion bushels, down 25% from last year and the smallest crop since 1965. Some rainfall in the Southern Plains this week offered a small amount of hope, but most analysts agree it is likely too late to meaningfully rescue the crop. KC wheat drawing back into Friday's close, despite that bullish backdrop, is a reflection of just how much the condition of the crop had been priced in.

On the production side, US corn planting progress continues to run ahead of the five-year average pace, which kept some pressure on new crop corn. Brazil remains a wildcard, with their Safrinha corn crop receiving hit-or-miss rainfall.

Heading into Memorial Day week, grain markets remain focused on the same themes that have dominated all spring, whether China will follow through on ag purchases, domestic weather, and a winter wheat crop that is in serious trouble.

Livestock:

Cattle markets had a tough week as futures came under significant pressure, with feeder cattle taking the hardest hit. Packer margins continue to be a major storyline, as they are starting to tighten up. Feedlots have been reluctant to move cattle at current bids, and that tension played out again this week with light cash trade and little resolution in sight until packer margins improve.

The New World Screwworm situation continues to be watched closely by the cattle industry. Active cases in northern Mexico are now within roughly 60-100 miles of the US border, keeping the southern border closed to Mexican feeder cattle imports. This is an ongoing tightening factor for feeder supply as we move into summer.

Pasture and rangeland conditions across the country continued to deteriorate this week. Nearly half of US pasture is now rated poor to very poor, a notable jump from last week, with the Plains being the most severely impacted. Nebraska stands out as a particular trouble spot, carrying both the worst pasture ratings in the country and one of the largest beef cow populations. Roughly 1 in 3 US beef cows are currently in states where pasture conditions are rated poor or very poor, a number that has long-term herd implications if dry conditions persist.

The May Cattle on Feed report was released today.

-            Cattle on Feed: 102% (101.4 Guess)

-            Placements: 106% (103 Guess)

-            Marketings: 90% (90.5 Guess)

Weather:

Heavy rainfall is expected across much of the eastern/southern U.S. over the next 7 days, with some areas seeing several inches of rain.

Warmer-than-normal temperatures are expected across much of the northern and central U.S. heading into early June.

Economy:

This week’s economic outlook added more pressure to already tight farm margins as inflation remained stubbornly near 3% and energy markets stayed volatile. Ongoing tensions in the Middle East pushed diesel and gasoline prices higher again, increasing costs for fieldwork, transportation, and overall farm operations during a critical part of the growing season.

The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at 3.5%–3.75%, signaling that relief on operating loan costs is unlikely in the near term as credit conditions continue to tighten. While broader economic activity remains relatively stable, consumer sentiment weakened again this week as higher fuel, food, and borrowing costs continue weighing on households and businesses alike.

Something That Probably Means Nothing:

The average NFL football contains enough cowhide leather to make about 18 baseballs. More than 25,000 footballs are used across the league each season.

Quote of the Week:

“Never confuse motion with action.” — Benjamin Franklin