9.25.26 Tredas Weekly Recap

Weekly Action:

Dec26 Corn up 0.75 to $5.2825

Nov26 Beans up 15.6 to $13.19

Dec26 Chi Wheat down 10.25 at $7.0325

Dec26 KC Wheat down 21.75 at $7.62

Dec26 Cotton up 1.58 to $0.8271

Oct26 Hogs up 0.125 to $0.78225

Oct26 Fats up 2.95 to $2.18875

Oct26 Feeders up 11.425 to $3.34925

Dec27 Corn up 2 to $5.28

Nov27 Beans up 11 to $12.7675

Jul27 Chi Wheat down 11.25 at $7.255

Jul27 KC Wheat down 20.5 at $7.745

Dec27 Cotton up 1.58 to $0.7939

Grains:

The corn futures market experienced a highly volatile week, surging 15.5 cents on Monday to a high of $5.43 due to harvest-delaying rains, before turning downward through Wednesday as clearer weather accelerated harvest progress. The sell-off extended into Thursday as a strengthening U.S. dollar pressured global demand, culminating in a sharp Friday morning drop to a session low of $5.15 after disappointing USDA export data triggered automated sell stops. This early weakness mirrored ongoing trade discussions with the Trump administration while Chinese President Xi visited Washington D.C.; while the high-profile meetings generated substantial bullish buzz regarding expanded exports, the market faced a reality check as the White House released no quantified grain purchase commitments by Friday afternoon.

Meanwhile, November soybeans surged to $13.28 on Monday as Midwest rains stalled harvesting and forced domestic processors to pay steep cash premiums. Prices steadily drifted lower through Thursday as combining resumed and a smaller-than-expected flash export sale to China disappointed traders. However, after triggering automated sell stops early Friday to hit a session low of $12.97, a powerful wave of commercial buying stepped in to push soybeans aggressively back up to finish near $13.20.

In the updated commitment of traders report for 09/15/2026 – 09/22/2026, Managed Money adjusted its weekly net positions across major grains. Funds reduced their net long position in Corn by -12,405 contracts and increased their net long position in Soybeans by +20,331 contracts.

Below is a volatility chart for corn and soybeans stacked up against the 5-year average. Vol has declined in the last couple weeks for corn and soybeans. Corn is currently slightly above the 5-year average, while soybeans are currently right in line with the 5-year average. Both are significantly higher vs summer levels.

Livestock:

Over the last four weeks, October live cattle futures steadily clawed back lost ground, staging a powerful macro recovery from late-August support floors near $209.50 to consolidate near the upper end of their monthly range. As September has progressed, a dramatic tightening of the domestic calf crop paired with strong Northern cash bids up to $223 forced meatpackers to pay higher premiums. Despite erratic mid-month export rumors, the contract successfully defended these fundamental gains to finish the four-week period trading up between $219.00 and $220.00.

Simultaneously, October feeder cattle futures experienced an even more explosive month-long trajectory, capitalizing on the dual tailwinds of scarce calf numbers and falling feed costs. After hitting a vulnerable late-August low of $310.85, the contract posted a massive $20 to $27 per hundredweight recovery over the course of September. This rally was fueled by historically low calf volumes moving through the feedlot pipeline and a sharp downswing in corn prices that lowered input costs, enabling feedlots to bid aggressively on replacements and lift the market back toward the $335.00 to $337.85 territory.

Weather:

The wet weather currently plaguing the Midwest harvest seems to be here for the foreseeable future. GFS 10-day forecasts are calling for more precipitation in the high plains/western Midwest, further delaying harvest progress. Below is a chart of US current September rainfall indexed against historical averages, and the most recent UNL drought monitor reading.

Economy:

A sudden surge in the 10-year Treasury yield to over 5.17% has brought the benchmark to its highest level since July 2007. Market analysts note that the speed of this increase is historically significant; since 1970, there have been 16 instances where this yield rose at a comparable pace, and each occurrence coincided with adjustments or disruptions within the broader financial markets. A key area currently under observation is the regional banking sector, which serves as a primary source for agricultural lending and local operating lines. The State Street SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) has recently declined by nearly 10% from its recent peak, reflecting the pressure that higher interest rates place on banking institutions.

For agricultural producers, these movements in the bond market serve as an indicator of shifting borrowing costs across the wider economy. Because the 10-year Treasury yield functions as a baseline for commercial financing, a sustained rise typically leads to higher interest rates on long-term capital commitments, including farmland mortgages, equipment loans, and floating-rate operating notes. Given that higher borrowing benchmarks can alter corporate capital spending and tighten credit availability, financial advisors suggest that producers closely monitor their variable-rate debt exposure and maintain a clear view of financing costs when planning for upcoming operational needs

Nebraska Economic Relief: 

On September 24, 2026, Nebraska Governor Jim Pillen signed two executive orders providing immediate 90-day economic relief to farmers and agricultural haulers facing high operating costs and fuel shortages during the fall harvest. The first order provides complete diesel tax relief by allowing agricultural vehicles to use untaxed, dyed "red" diesel without penalty, while enabling producers to fully refund state motor fuel taxes (currently 31.8 cents per gallon) paid at commercial pumps while hauling crops or livestock.

The second order establishes weight exemptions to eliminate harvest bottlenecks, granting a 25% increase over legal weight limits—up to 20,000 pounds per axle—for trucks hauling seasonal agricultural products without requiring special state permits. Alongside these state measures, Governor Pillen formally requested the White House to enact a temporary 90-day federal freeze on all U.S. diesel exports to rebuild tight domestic fuel reserves and lower energy costs.

Quote of the Week:

"I think our farmers are going to be very happy." - President Donald Trump Friday morning

Have a great weekend!